The Numbers Game: Is Texas A&M’s Defense Legit?

Lost in all the offensive production and Kenny “Trill” talk is the fact that Texas A&M’s defense has been really good this year. That’s the thing that makes this game so intriguing to me:

• Two Heisman candidate quarterbacks
• Two offenses that with at least 475 yards in each game this year
• Two defenses in the top 20 (scoring)

Not to mention all the other similarities (maroon, dogs, Ag, Jackie Sherrill, etc.). This game is literally a push; yeah, who knows who will win – it should be a great game. Let’s dig into the numbers.

Scoring defense: 13th (15 PPG)

Total defense: 55th (376 YPG)

If you’re looking for something to compare it to, look no further than MSU.

• Scoring defense: 17th (16.5 PPG)
• Total defense: 75th (401 YPG)

Pretty interesting there. Both have given up plenty of yards without letting teams in the endzone. A&M is a little better statistically and has played two SEC games against teams with good offenses. Of course, if you took away the UAB fluke deep passes…..but if ifs and buts were candy and nuts.

Last year A&M was 96th in scoring defense – that is an incredible jump. Granted it’s still “early”, but they have already played 42% of their schedule. Another stat that jumps off the page are tackles behind the line of scrimmage…

Total sacks: 12th (16)

Tackles for loss: 12th (35)

Again, look no further than MSU for similar statistics. The Bulldogs are 15th in sacks and 12th in TFL.

I think Geoff Collins has a pretty salty defense. Is Mark Snyder’s bunch just as salty? Really?

The Aggies are 46th in passing defense and 67th in rushing defense. They have given up six touchdowns of 35 yards or more, but the sacks and TFL are very good pointing to an all or nothing defense that takes a lot of chances.

MSU’s defense is really good against the run: 7th. And bad against the pass: 124th. The Dawgs are 1st in the nation in red zone defense and have generated a lot of three and outs.

Two different ways to arrive at virtually the same stats.

Now let’s take a quick look at how A&M has done in each game:

• at South Carolina: 433 yards, 28 points
• vs. Lamar: 243 yards, 3 points
• vs. Rice: 481 yards, 10 points
• at SMU: 241 yards, 6 points
• vs. Arkansas: 484 yards, 28 points

Clearly two horrible teams are propping their stats up. Against the two SEC offenses they’ve played they gave up the same 28 points and and average of 459 yards.

To compare, here is how MSU’s defense has done in each game:

• vs. USM: 283 yards, 0 points
• vs. UAB: 548 yards, 34 points
• at South Alabama: 345 yards, 3 points
• at LSU: 430 yards, 29 points

With only one SEC game it’s hard to gauge the nature of what to fully expect in conference play….especially considering two of LSU’s touchdowns were in garbage time and one was a defensive score.

In conclusion, Texas A&M’s defense has some really impressive numbers but right now MSU’s defense looks better. The jury is still out for me – right now I’m buying that they are much improved, but I’m not buying that they are near the top of the league like their stats suggest. While State’s offense will surely score on them, it won’t be an easy as bull-dozing like we thought in the summer.