Dan Mullen’s Quest for a Top 10 Win
Sep 13, 2014; Mobile, AL, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen (R) talks with field judge Bobby Ables (L) during a time-out in the first quarter against the South Alabama Jaguars at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Glenn Andrews-USA TODAY Sports
Dan Mullen’s tenure has seen five football seasons come and go and still pundits around the SEC and college football clamor for him to win a big game. He has maintained his ground above the mediocre but below the elite for some time – waiting for that chance to pounce. Will this week’s game vs. LSU be the game he finally breaks through to beat a top 10 team? Will Coach Mullen get the monkey off his back and claim the signature win so many MSU fans desire?
When Dan Mullen’s career in Starkville began it was filled with the potential of knocking off big teams. Within his first season of 2009 the Bulldogs had a number of close calls and thrilling victories.
A last minute goal line stand is the only thing that kept MSU from beating #7 LSU for the first time in 10 years. It was also the closest margin of victory (four points) since State beat the Tigers in 1999.
When Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow and defending national champion #2 Florida came to Starkville they got all they could handle. The end result was a 10-point Gator victory, which was tied for the 2nd lowest margin of victory during their undefeated regular season.
All those games built towards the season finale when Mullen and his team defeated #20 Ole Miss, a team that was ranked as high as #4 that year, in electrifying fashion, 41-27.
To date, that is the highest ranked team Coach Mullen has beaten.
In 2010 the close games continued. A narrow three point loss to the eventual national champion, Auburn, and a thrilling overtime loss to #13 Arkansas stood as near misses. The big win of the year was at #22 Florida when Mullen used a stubborn rushing attack to stave off the Gators in the Swamp.
Since the beginning of the 2011 season, however, the close games against elite competition and wins over ranked teams have disappeared.
Only the South Carolina game of the ‘11 season did Mississippi State stand within one play of beating a ranked team with less than five minutes to play.
Over the past three years, it’s a 0-13 record vs. AP ranked teams for Mullen. A 1-17 record against BCS-level teams that finish the year with a winning record – the win came in his last game, the Egg Bowl vs. Ole Miss.
The program isn’t going backwards – far from it – but they have carved out a not-so-welcomed niche within the framework of the SEC.
5-0 vs. Kentucky
4-4 vs. the rest of the SEC East
4-1 vs. Ole Miss
2-3 vs. Arkansas
1-4 vs. Auburn
0-2 vs. Texas A&M
0-5 vs. LSU
0-5 vs. Alabama
Coach Mullen beats the bottom of the SEC every time he plays them. In fact, he has never lost to a team that finished the year with a losing record. Ever.
The SEC West is the toughest division in the toughest conference in all of college football – there are currently five teams in the AP top 10. With that comes the understanding that folly is not the reason for losing to LSU and Alabama every year. It’s tough work – there are not too many programs that would have fared better than Mississippi State has.
At the same time, however, Mullen has relied on facing bottom-feeders to get to bowl games. Since 2011, the combined conference record of the SEC teams State has beaten is 8-64 (.111). There are nine SEC wins in that time frame, five of them coming from 0-8 teams.
Building a program is a step-by-step process. You have to consistently beat the poor teams before you can start punching out the good ones. Mullen has kept his head above water by winning those games against lesser competition. But is Mullen getting close to beating elite teams ahead of MSU?
Over the last three years State has played seven top 10 teams – they have lost by an average of 22 points. The closest games were 2011 vs. #3 LSU and 2013 vs. #1 Alabama, both 13 point margins.
This week we are asking Mississippi State to skip over just plain beating a ranked team which we haven’t done since 2010, but beat a top 10 team. In fact, the next three games will all be against top 10 teams most likely (LSU, A&M, Auburn).
The combination of depth, leadership and experience has never existed in the Mullen era like it does for the 2014 season. Is this the year he finally gets over the hump for a signature win? Should this be the year he gets that monkey off his back?
The lack of a big win won’t hurt Mullen’s job status, but the drum beat that the program is stuck in neutral will only get stronger. That hurts perception, and perception is 90% of recruiting. Recruiting is 90% of winning.
A signature win over a top 10-15 nationally ranked team would pump even more life into a program that is waiting to explode with excitement. The proof that Mullen can accomplish this feat could do wonders on the recruiting trails and in the minds of players who will now have the confidence they can compete with anyone.
This week’s game against LSU and the subsequent games following is what the Mullen era has been building towards. Now is the time. Carpe Diem.