The Numbers Game – Should MSU Go For Two After EVERY Touchdown?
Is there anything more infuriating than Mississippi State’s kicking game? Each year over the past decade it has seemingly gotten progressively worse to the point where now it is a complete joke. MSU missed TWO extra points vs. UAB and had a third bounce off the upright and go in. Not to mention the ones that barely snuck in for a successful PAT.
Mississippi State and Arizona State are the only teams in FBS football to miss multiple extra points so far this season. Fortunately State has scored 14 touchdowns so as a percentage they are only 115th out of 126 teams instead of dead last.
State is last in field goal kicking, however. 0 for 1. This comes off the heels of being 122nd last year. MSU is the only team in the SEC who hasn’t made a field goal yet and one of only nine teams in FBS.
How do we fix it? We could scour the campus and look for the best kickers currently taking Sociology every M, W, F at 10:00, continue to hold our breath and hope it goes through the uprights – or we could just go for two…..after every single touchdown.
The logic is simple, really. You get two points instead of just one. That means you only have to be successful 50% of the time to equal the same point total, and anything above 50% is gravy.
One of the things that is great about a big, mobile quarterback like Dak Prescott is his ability to pick up 1st downs on 3rd and short. Well this is pretty much the same thing. Three yards from the line to gain – can we get two points. I know we couldn’t just run the same play every time, but with Dak you have to like our chances a lot better than the average team going for two.
Too much wear and tear on Dak? Maybe the two-point play could be a special package designed for Damian Williams or even Nick Fitzgerald – both of whom are noted as big, physical runners.
Ever since the 2-point conversion was invented in 1958 the success rate has been 41-42%. It’s incredible that it has not changed that much in over 50 years of attempts. Every article I’ve read points to 40-50% for every team attempting two point conversions.
So that’s a little less than 50% which you would need to equal a full complement of made extra points. Is Dak Prescott and MSU’s offensive weapons on this 2014 team good enough to make the small leap from 40 to 50%? It’s just trading one failed two-point try every 10 attempts for a made one. That’s not too hard is it?
If the Bulldogs really practiced a number of these plays they could become really good at it. Who knows, it could even be an advantage.
What I do know is I have zero confidence in MSU’s placekickers. Dan Mullen seems to have some level of confidence in them, and he claims they made the kicks in practice. Well, it doesn’t translate into the games. Right now I trust Dak Prescott and the Mississippi State offense a whole lot more than the right foot of any one of our kickers.