Dan Mullen’s Biggest Gamble

Sep 14, 2013; Auburn, AL, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen talks to quarterback Dak Prescott (15) during the first half against the Auburn Tigers at Jordan Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

We have all watched in disbelief the first two weeks as Dan Mullen has repeatedly swapped out the “1a” units for the “1b” units on both offense and defense. The reason given for this strategy of making massive substitutions has been that he believes Mississippi State has 22 people on both sides of the ball that are capable of starting for this team. He wants to get the second group playing time during meaningful minutes instead of during garbage time of games that are supposed to be blowouts.

That’s the logic, and on one level it makes sense. Mullen has given every indication that he will continue to operate using this same strategy this week as the Bulldogs head to Mobile to take on South Alabama. If it works the way Mullen wants it to, then it could pay big dividends. The flip side is that if the Jaguars are allowed to hang around and get some confidence against the Bulldogs, then we could have the makings of a monumental upset on our hands. That makes this Dan Mullen’s biggest gamble to date as the head coach.

The opening two games of the season have looked completely different except for one thing. In both games, the Bulldogs got off to a slow start offensively. Most everyone seems to agree that the reason for such a slow start was because of the rotating of offensive units and not allowing the starters to really get a rhythm. The one thing that Dan Mullen is right about in regards to Damian Williams is he needs more reps.

For the first time since 2009, Mississippi State will have a major drop off at quarterback if the starter Dak Prescott goes down with an injury. In 2010 and 2011, everyone felt relatively confident that Tyler Russell could handle the job if something happened to Chris Relf. Russell would eventually go on to take over full time for the fifth year senior in 2011. In 2012, people felt Dak would do alright if Russell went down. Even though there was a revolving door at quarterback in 2013, either due to injury or Dan Mullen being indecisive, we spent most of the year with either Russell or Prescott at quarterback. The injury to Russell in the opener caused Mullen to go ahead and burn the redshirt on Williams early. It paid off big time against Ole Miss and Arkansas.

That brings us to this year. Williams was serviceable as a backup last year, but we need someone who is more than just serviceable in the pocket this year. An injury to Dak would be a disaster, so Williams needs to get some playing time to get better. I tend to believe that this won’t happen during games in SEC play, as do 86% of you, but I also won’t be 100% convinced until I see it myself. There is always the possibility he could turn to Fitzgerald or Staley, but going to a true freshman for the second consecutive year would be less than ideal. I just don’t think that it needs to be when the game is still on the line. At the very least, why not wait until the Bulldogs get a two possession lead?

Dan Mullen has done a great job developing recruits into players that have played above their rating coming out of high school. He has done a good job leading the team and making sure they stay focused no matter who the opponent is. The one thing that concerns me though is I think Dan Mullen wants to be seen as an innovator in college football. His use of the quarterback has been an area where he has strayed completely from the norm. No other college coach I know of would switch a quarterback that is head and shoulders above his backup out just to get the other guy playing time. Mullen is right when he says we are just one snap away from Damian being the starter, but every other team is in the same boat. No other team employs anything similar to this. I think this is Dan Mullen wanting to create some sort of innovation to college football. The same can be said of swapping out entire units at a time and calling them “1a” and “1b”.

I was never really worried about our game against South Alabama. I thought the Jaguars would put up a fight and come out ready to play, but would eventually get worn down by the contrast in talent of both teams. This game management plan by Mullen has me worried though. I think it’s a risk. Like all risks, it comes with a high reward if it pays off. It also could be a huge disaster if it doesn’t. If the Bulldogs go down to Mobile and lose, or are in a position to lose at the end of the game, Mullen could lose all the goodwill that he gained by winning the last three games. The confidence we had in this team would drop precipitously, if it hasn’t already. There is also the possibility that this extra playing time could make the team a stronger and deeper unit than it already is. No matter how you look at it, it’s a gamble. Let’s just hope Mullen has all aces in his hand and isn’t trying to bluff.