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The Numbers Game: Run the Football!

By The Croom Diaries

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I believe Mississippi State’s best chance for team success is to run the football more than 60% of the time. Control the game, keep the defense off the field, create good down and distance situations and we’ll win ball games running the football.

Here is a list of all 40 SEC games under Dan Mullen and the percentage of plays that were rushing attempts.

  • Auburn (2009) – 64%
  • Vanderbilt (2009) – 76%
  • LSU (2009) – 53%
  • Florida (2009) – 60%
  • Kentucky (2009) – 73%
  • Alabama (2009) – 65%
  • Arkansas (2009) – 81%
  • Ole Miss (2009) – 81%
  • Auburn (2010) – 49%
  • LSU (2010) – 71%
  • Georgia (2010) – 74%
  • Florida (2010) – 84%
  • Kentucky (2010) – 67%
  • Alabama (2010) – 68%
  • Arkansas (2010) – 70%
  • Ole Miss (2010) – 71%
  • Auburn (2011) – 65%
  • LSU (2011) – 57%
  • Georgia (2011) – 51%
  • South Carolina (2011) – 55%
  • Kentucky (2011) – 60%
  • Alabama (2011) – 49%
  • Arkansas (2011) – 51%
  • Ole Miss (2011) – 77%
  • Auburn (2012) – 55%
  • Kentucky (2012) – 50%
  • Tennessee (2012) – 51%
  • Alabama (2012) – 37%
  • Texas A&M (2012) – 47%
  • LSU (2012) – 38%
  • Arkansas (2012) – 51%
  • Ole Miss (2012) – 42%
  • Auburn (2013) – 59%
  • LSU (2013) – 54%
  • Kentucky (2013) – 53%
  • South Carolina (2013) – 45%
  • Texas A&M (2013) – 51%
  • Alabama (2013) – 50%
  • Arkansas (2013) – 54%
  • Ole Miss (2013) – 52%

Notice the sharp decline in rushing attempts per game.

In 2009 and 2010, Mullen only went below 64% twice. In nine of the 16 games during that time period he ran the ball at least 70% of the time.
In the past three years Mullen has only run the ball more than 64% twice. One of those times was the first SEC game of 2011, and the other was in a rain-soaked Egg Bowl where Ole Miss had basically given up.

The obvious hypothesis is that Tyler Russell was the reason for the increase in passing, and Dak Prescott will bring back the run-heavy offense we saw with Chris Relf. But Russell only started 13 of these 24 games, and in each of Prescott’s 2013 SEC starts (Auburn, LSU, Kentucky and South Carolina) State threw less than 60% of the time – only 45% vs. USC.

You might say Mullen has had equal success with a run-heavy offense and a 50/50 balanced offense as he’s gone to bowl games each year.
My only issue with that is that he’s been able to play the worst SEC teams and that is creating a skewed view of what’s working. Since 2011, Mullen’s nine SEC wins have come against teams with a combined 8-64 conference record.

By comparison, his seven SEC wins in 2009 and 2010 came against teams with a combined 16-40 record. Not great, but over 2.5 times the winning percentage.

And just the eye test, the offense of the last few years has not been as consistent and it was Mullen’s first couple of years.

One major reason is that a good running game puts the offense in 3rd and manageable situations.

MSU got all the way up to 24th in the country in 3rd down conversions in 2010. That dropped back to 82nd in 2011, then 102nd in 2012. They were able to improve to 68th last year, however.

Trading an incompletion for a four yard gain on first down can do wonders for your offense. Getting into 3rd and long situations is a killer for any drive, and ultimately hurts the defense as well when they suffer poor field position from lack of sustained drives.

So what will Coach Mullen do in 2014? Not only has he confirmed that he is the one calling plays, but he will be the offensive coordinator this fall as there is no one else with that title.

Running the ball more gives MSU the best chance to compete in big games. They have to be effective of course, but with the stable of backs (JRob, Shump, Griffin, Dak and even Aeries Williams) they should be able to do very well. Replacing Gabe Jackson at Left Guard will be no easy feat, but committing to the run game is something that’s vital to the Bulldogs’ success.

If the offense can stay on the field longer by converting some third downs, keep the defense fresh and wear down opposing teams with their bruising backs then State may have a shot to upset some really good teams. Prescott will have to make his fair share of throws, but this offense works best when it’s running downhill.

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