Jan 4, 2014; Birmingham, AL, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores wide receiver Jordan Matthews (87) catches a pass for a touchdown against the Houston Cougars during the 2014 Compass Bowl at Legion Field. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
Number 1: The Vanderbilt Commodores
No game on the schedule that the Bulldogs should win gives me more heartburn than the one against Vanderbilt. I don’t like anything about the way this one sets up. First, the Commodores will likely have four wins entering this game based off their schedule and will need this one and their season finale to get bowl eligibility. Second, Mississippi State will be coming off an extremely hard fought game against Alabama the week before. Third, the Egg Bowl is right after this game. This game has trap game written all over it. So does all that mean that Vanderbilt will be able to pull off an upset?
Upset chance: 33% Maybe. The Commodores will have a lot to overcome to win this game. They lose a lot of talent from their 8-4 team in 2013, and they will still be in an adjustment period under their new head coach. If everything plays out the way I expect, Mississippi State will enter this game as a likely double digit favorite. If they do, I wouldn’t expect them to cover. There are a lot of factors that make this as the most likely team to upset the Bulldogs in 2014.