Mississippi State Should Get to 9 Wins, But Will They?

Nov 16, 2013; Starkville, MS, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen greets Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban following the Tide

Expectations for the 2014 Mississippi State football team continue to grow with each passing day. The continuity among the returning coaches and players points to a recipe of success. Dak Prescott is viewed as a dynamic quarterback who may be the missing ingredient in Dan Mullen’s offense. The defense could be one of the saltiest in the SEC. The schedule is as good as you could ask for within the toughest division of the toughest conference in college football. More than a few fans and pundits have uttered the words, “ten win season”.

Ten wins would be a really special season. Just look down the record book – it’s only happened twice (1940, 1999). A ten win regular season has never happened. Never. Yet some folks believe just that might happen this year. They’re absolutely right to believe it could happen – but will it happen is the question.

Within the scope of the regular season getting to double digit wins would require an extraordinary leap forward. The prediction of a 10-2 season are strong words. Very strong. Here’s why…

Clearly anyone can look down MSU’s schedule and see seven wins (USM, UAB, USA, UK, ARK, UT-M, VU). You see it, I see it, Vegas sees it.  So what about those other five games: LSU, A&M, AUB, BAMA, OM. Three on the road and two at home.

Those five teams are going to be good. And by good I mean they’ll all be going to bowl games barring a complete collapse – and not being able to beat good teams has been the difference between MSU being an average SEC team and one that has a chance to win ten games under Mullen.

The past three bowl trips for State have relied heavily on facing, for lack of a better term, dumpster fire SEC teams. Out of the nine conference wins since 2011, five of them were against 0-8 teams. Only once has MSU beat a team that was at least 3-5 in the SEC – last year’s Egg Bowl win.

In Mullen’s five years he has beat (2) 4-4 teams and (3) 3-5 teams, but never a team that finished with a winning conference record. And like I said above, just one win in the last three years over a team with at least a 3-5 finish.

I think it’s fair to assume all five of the above mentioned opponents will have at least three SEC wins. So, in order for Mississippi State to reach a ten win level they would have to knock off three of them when they have only won one such game in the last three years.

Of course, the majority of people in and around the MSU football program are not expecting 10 wins. That is mostly just hope.

Should we expect nine wins, perhaps?

When you look at what Mullen has done in recent years, it’s hard to say for certain State will achieve nine wins. It goes to the simple fact that he hasn’t beaten anyone of substance in three years…..well, except if you count Ole Miss last year.

Before the 2013 season I wrote about how the goal for last season was competing for four quarters against elite teams. Not beating them, just competing. In some respects that happened with Auburn, Texas A&M and Alabama. In others it didn’t with Oklahoma State, LSU and South Carolina breaking away in the 4th quarter.

It’s fair to say Coach Mullen is on the right track with the program, and they are improving at an acceptable level. I was okay with the end result of the 2013 season. Now we move forward…

Is this the year Mullen finally wins that elusive big game? He has only beaten two ranked teams in five years….and I won’t mention how many losses but we play in the SEC so it’s a lot. There have been a number of close games but also many blowouts (two or more touchdowns).

If State can equal last year and beat one 3-5 or better team, they should hit eight wins (provided Mullen continues to dominate lesser competition).

So if nine wins are the expectation, then Mullen getting this monkey off his back is the expectation in 2014.

LSU, Auburn and Alabama should all be ranked in the top 10 when MSU plays them. Chances are A&M and Ole Miss will be ranked too. So that means beating two ranked teams in one year. It means doing something Mullen has never done before.

Is this the year the Bulldogs get over the hump with a big win? In his 6th year, with a newly expanded stadium and excitement at an all-time high it is time. It’s time to pick one of the big boys off, get to nine wins and proclaim that Mississippi State is indeed a program to be taken seriously in the SEC West.