MSU Baseball Forecast: Rocky Bottom Edition

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

So here we are for the last home baseball series of the 2013-2014 MSU Baseball season. This weekend, we face off against the Volunteers of the University of Tennessee. Now as most of you know, with this being the last baseball series of the year, emotions will be running high for both the players and the fans. This is our last chance, most likely, to see some of these players at Dudy Noble Field wearing Maroon and White. Hopefully we will see all the ingredients for beautiful skies and delay-less games. But let’s hop right in and look at what the NAM thinks will happen for this weekend’s matchups for Friday (6:00 PM CDT), Saturday (6:30 PM CDT), and Sunday (1:30 PM CDT).

250 mb

Looking up at the upper-levels of the atmosphere, we see a fairly significant trough working its way across the Central US. We start being affected by a jet streak around 6 AM Friday. This continues on for a fairly good amount of time, yet weakens slightly around sundown. If the jet streak moves out a little sooner, then we should be able to start on time on Friday. If not, then we may have a slightly delayed start due to rain/lightning. As we move onto the Saturday match-up, the jet stream tries to bring in another short-wave trough through the area, but I believe that it should stay to the North enough that we won’t get too much uplift from it and associated rainfall will stay to our North. However, cloud cover is very likely for the Saturday match-up. Sunday looks like the best day for baseball during the series. Rain chances will be fairly low, but cannot be ruled out completely.

500 mb

Looking at vorticity about halfway up in the atmosphere, Friday is once again shaping up to be possibly a bad day for baseball. The DPVA is pretty strong on Friday before first pitch, but it does decrease slightly right before which gives me hope that we may just avoid the rain. Saturday looks similar, but not as strong of DPVA as Friday was looking. So it looks like uplift for Friday will be the strongest. Sunday is once again our least likely period for rain from what I’ve seen thus far in the model.

700 mb

UVVs aren’t painting a very pleasant picture for those of us who want to see baseball on Friday. UVVs peak for the Friday time period around 21Z (4:00 PM CDT) which is pushing it for game time since the NAM only releases these every 3 hours so it’s very possible that this could stick around until game time, which doesn’t make me very happy. For Saturday, the UVVs are a lot more subdued than you would expect. This may mean we will have more a stratiform-type precipitation rather than cumuloform, which spells good news because instead of a heavy-intense rainfall, we could see more of a slow, steady, not drowning rainfall. Sunday looks like Saturday on the UVV front, which brings more confidence in my thoughts of Sunday being the best day for baseball for this weekend.

Surface Analysis

NAM simulated reflectivity is looking iffy for an on-time Friday first pitch. The game most likely will NOT be cancelled for Friday, but it may be delayed due to heavy rainfall. NWS Jackson, MS is calling for localized flash flooding within their whole CWA (County Warning Area) and rainfall amounts ~ 1-3 inches. So it may take a little while to flush the water out of the field, but I think we get a game in eventually on Friday evening. Saturday has much weaker rain chances than Friday from everything I’m seeing in the model output. Sunday, like I’ve been saying throughout this whole post, is once again taking the cake for the most beautiful situation for baseball this weekend. Seems appropriate that our best day of baseball is Mother’s Day/Senior Day.

Numbers you want to know

Friday

First pitch (6:00 PM CDT): 74 degrees, overcast, winds S at 15-20 mph, chance of rain 80%, chance of delay 50%.

Last out (9:00 PM CDT): 69 degrees, mostly cloudy, winds SSE at 10-15 mph, chance of rain 30%.

Saturday

First pitch (6:30 PM CDT): 77 degrees, mostly cloudy, winds SSE at 5-10 mph, chance of rain 20%.

Last out (9:30 PM CDT): 72 degrees, partly cloudy, winds SSE at 5-10 mph.

Sunday (Mother’s Day & Senior Day)

First pitch (1:30 PM CDT): 81 degrees, partly cloudy, winds SSE at 15-20 mph, gusts up to 25 mph.

Last out (4:30 PM CDT): 83 degrees, partly cloudy, winds SE at 15-20 mph.