The Road to and Through the SEC Tournament for MSU
The field is set for the SEC Tournament, here is the seeding:
1. Kentucky, 16-0
2. Tennessee, 10-6
3. Vanderbilt, 10-6
4. Florida, 10-6
5. Alabama, 9-7
6. Mississippi State, 8-8
7. Ole Miss, 8-8
8. LSU, 7-9
9. Arkansas, 6-10
10. Auburn, 5-11
11. Georgia, 5-11
12. South Carolina, 2-14
MSU will play UGA on Thursday night at 9:00. If they win that game the Dawgs will play Vanderbilt on Friday night at 9:00. If State can win that game they’d play Tennessee/Ole Miss/Auburn on Saturday afternoon at 3:30. Win that one and they’d most likely play Kentucky, but it could also be Florida/Alabama/LSU/Arkansas/South Carolina.
The field is set up in similar fashion to a magical year some might remember – 1996. In that year Kentucky was also 16-0 in the regular season and had only lost one game the entire season. They were ranked #1 and Mississippi State beat them 84-73. And that MSU team was similar in regards to underachievement during the regular season as they begun the season ranked #9. Oh yeah, that tournament was in New Orleans too.
If the season were over today, it appears five SEC teams would make the big dance: Kentucky (#1 overall seed), Florida (5-6 seed), Vanderbilt (5-7 seed), Alabama (8-10 seed), and Mississippi State (11-12 seed). On the bubble: Tennessee and Ole Miss.
Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt and Alabama are definitely in. MSU, UT, and TSUN all have work to do. Conventional wisdom would suggest State just has to win one game in the SEC Tourney to secure a spot, but nothing is for certain. Tennessee appears to be five or six slots back, and they may need to make the championship game to get in. A possible semi-final matchup between the Vols and Dawgs could end up a play-in for the NCAAs. Ole Miss is a stretch, but if they were to beat Auburn, Tennessee, and either MSU or Vanderbilt on their way to the SEC Championship game they could get in.
Best case scenario for Mississippi State: Beat Georgia on Thursday and Vanderbilt on Friday. Auburn beat Ole Miss on Thursday and Tennessee on Friday. Then lose to Auburn on Saturday.
Here’s why I say that: playing four games in four days doesn’t sound appealing to me. Remember 2009, the selection committee thought it funny to send us across the country to play on three days rest after a 4-day run through the SEC. With all the depth concerns on this team, I’d rather just play three games and get the extra day’s rest. And I’d like to see MSU win two games in the tourney so they can stay away from the “first four”, or play-in games. Plus, with the above paragraph Tennessee and Ole Miss would lose, bouncing them off the bubble. So, War Eagle (I’m not going to hold my breath).
Here’s an interesting thought for you to ponder though. What if the Bulldogs make another tourney run and actually beat Kentucky in the SEC Championship Game just like 1996? That would probably vault State to a 7 or 8 seed. But what if the fatigue associated with that caused a first round exit? Would you prefer that scenario, or would you rather the Dawgs bow out early, get a 12 seed and end up in the Sweet 16?