Mississippi State at Arkansas Preview

Dan Mullen is in his 3rd year at MSU. Bobby Petrino is in his 4th year at Arkansas. So it was only natural that Mullen said the Razorback’s program was a year ahead of the Bulldog’s right now. Let’s take a look at how the first few years have gone for both coaches at their respective schools.

Mullen               Petrino

Year 1        5-7 (3-5)           5-7 (2-6)

Year 2        9-4 (4-4)           8-5 (3-5)

Year 3        5-5 (1-5)          10-3(6-2)

Year 4        ?                       9-1 (5-1)

Mullen got off to a better start after two years, but certainly Petrino was more successful in year three as Arkansas went to the Sugar Bowl. But, Mullen could be justified in his assessment considering that if 2010’s overtime game had gone in favor of MSU those records would be much closer.

With three games to go, it appears likely Arkansas will get to 10 wins again this year. That makes this the most successful time for Arkansas football since 1988-89 when they had back to back 10-2 seasons which included Southwest Conference Championships. At #6, the Hogs also have their highest ranking since 2006 (#5), and the second highest since 1985 (#4). After losing Knile Davis, who ran for 1,322 yards in 2010, in training camp, Arkansas has had a great season to be 9-1.

RUSHING

There’s been rumors that Davis is close to a comeback, but Petrino dismissed them

saying he still has hardware to be taken out of his ankle. The Razorbacks have replaced Davis with several running backs: Dennis Johnson (507 yards) and Ronnie Wingo (382 yards) as the most prominent. MSU has given up 220+ yards on the ground each of the last two weeks. For the Bulldogs, Vick Ballard leads with 810 and LaDarius Perkins has 321 yards. Against defenses not named Alabama (#1), LSU (#3), and Georgia (#5), State has averaged 225 YPG. Ballard had 150 yards and 3 touchdowns vs. ARK last year and would’ve had one more if he wouldn’t have lost a fumble into the endzone in the first overtime. MSU was able to run 70 rushing plays out of 100 total last year. Arkansas has given up 197, 381, 291, 151, 222, 79, & 141 rushing vs. BCS competition this year.

MSU’s rush offense, 48th (169.5) vs. ARK’s rush defense, 74th (172.2)

ARK’s rush offense, 73rd (144.4) vs. MSU’s rush defense, 69th (167.4)

PASSING

Tyler Wilson is far and away the leading passer in the SEC (285 YPG). Jarius Wright (UPig’s all-time receptions leader) leads a very talented receiving corps with 906 yards, Joe Adams has 568, and Cobi Hamilton has 406 – all of which would lead MSU in receiving. MSU’s defense has not given up 200 yards passing in the last 6 games and has only allowed 2 receiving touchdowns in the last 5 games. The Dawgs have also only allowed 3 passes this season for more than 30 yards, Arkansas has 21 plays for such yardage. Although State has struggled to throw the ball, they sit comfortably at 5th in the SEC. The Hogs pass defense is 9th in the SEC.

MSU’s pass offense, 82nd (203.8) vs. ARK’s pass defense, 35th (203)

ARK’s pass offense, 11th (311.3) vs. MSU’s pass defense, 14th (185.6)

SPECIAL TEAMS

Joe Adams is a lethal punt returner, leading the nation with 17.9 YPR and 3 touchdowns. A fresh example of what he can do was shown in his remarkable run last week vs. Tennessee. The Hogs also have the leading kick returner in the SEC, Marquel Wade, who has one touchdown. MSU is 119th in kickoff returns, ARK is 11th. MSU is 22nd in punt returns, ARK is 9th.

SCORING

Dennis Johnson is a big, bruising back that should give Arkansas an advantage in goal line situations. Vick Ballard has scored 27 touchdowns in his two years at Mississippi State, so even if Relf doesn’t play MSU should have an advantage of their own on goal to go. Arkansas is #2 in the SEC, scoring on 88.9% of their red zone opportunities. State is #7, scoring on 84.4%. The Hogs are also #1 in red zone defense (69.6%) while MSU is #3 (76.5%).

MSU’s scoring offense, 70th (25.8) vs. ARK’s scoring defense, 30th (21.5)

ARK’s scoring offense, 13th (38.8) vs. MSU’s scoring defense, 17th (19.2)

Looking at these statistics, they look awful close for two teams separated by four games. What could be the cause for this?

1. State played LSU, the best team in the SEC. Arkansas played Ole Miss, the worst team in the SEC.
2. State played Georgia, the 1st place team in the East, on the road. Arkansas played Tennessee, the last place team in the East, at home.
3. Arkansas played South Carolina without Marcus Lattimore or Antonio Allen (safety who intercepted Tyler Russell’s pass on MSU’s last drive).
4. State played Auburn on the road, Arkansas played them at home and Barrett Trotter completely forgot how to throw a football.
5. Then throw in the Razorbacks ability to win close games like Vanderbilt and Ole Miss, and State’s inability to win against Auburn and South Carolina and there you have it.

Sophomore safety Nickoe Whitley is out for the season with a ruptured Achilles’ tendon. Whitley, who has started in seven games, was injured during the first quarter vs. Alabama. He was 2nd on the team (4th in the SEC) with 4 INTs, tied for 3rd with 5 passes defended and 10th in tackles with 34. Brandon Maye could be back from a suspension which cost him the Alabama game. Chris Relf is questionable after sustaining a mild concussion.

Undoubtedly the key to the game will be keeping Arkansas’ offense on the sidelines. That means a big day is needed from Vick Ballard, not only in the run game but defending against the Hog’s series of blitzes. Chad Bumphis also needs to step it up in SEC play, out of his 337 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns this year, he only has 121 yards and 0 touchdowns in six league games.