12-team College Football Playoff rankings prediction: SEC implosion creates chaos
What a weekend of college football! It was a classic case of the slate of games not necessarily looking the best on paper only to end up providing total chaos. In the race to the College Football Playoff, we saw multiple teams take huge stumbles near the finish line, and that's created some major shakeups to my latest rankings prediction.
12-team College Football Playoff rankings prediction after Week 13
Two new teams enter the field and rankings have shuffled around following the chaos of Saturday. I haven't thought to mention this in my previous rankings, but I should clarify that in this case "rankings" is reflecting seeding for the playoff bracket.
Rank | Team | Why They Are Here | Previous Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
1. | Oregon | Big Ten Champion | 1. |
2. | Texas | SEC Champion | 2. |
3. | SMU | ACC Champion | NR |
4. | Arizona State | Big 12 Champion | NR |
5. | Ohio State | At-Large | 5. |
6. | Penn State | At-Large | 8. |
7. | Notre Dame | At-Large | 10. |
8. | Georgia | At-Large | 9. |
9. | Miami | At-Large | 3. |
10. | Indiana | At-Large | 6. |
11. | Tennessee | At-Large | 11. |
12. | Boise State | Highest Ranked G5 Champion | 12. |
Dropped Out - BYU (previously 4th), Alabama (previously 7th)
Indiana falls back down to earth, the SEC implodes, SMU and Arizona State takeover auto-bids
We finally got an answer for what it'd look like once Indiana faced a truly strong team, and the answer was...not great. The Hoosiers looked like belonged with the Buckeyes early, but as the game wore on, Ohio State proved to be a different caliber like many assumed, winning 38-15.
The victory laps from SEC country were short-lived however, as whatever vindication those fanbases felt for "being right about Indiana" evaporated throughout the day as a trio of SEC playoff contenders - Ole Miss, Alabama, and Texas A&M - kissed their at-large hopes goodbye by losing to bottom-half SEC teams for their third losses of the year. Those losses, paired with some other results, have created mass chaos.
So how do we sort things out?
Alabama drops out of the field. I already didn't have the Rebels included unlike the actual committee, but they're done. A&M was on the outside looking in by everyone, so that remains the case (although they still can technically win the SEC). Those losses ended any tough conversations about Indiana. Even without any good wins and a blowout loss to the only good team faced, if IU goes 11-1, they're in given the current landscape. I did drop them down to 10th, though.
I, unlike the committee, had Tennessee in, and those results likely locked-in the Vols assuming they beat Vanderbilt. Penn State, Notre Dame, and Georgia are all locks with rivalry week wins. I did bump the Irish ahead of Georgia after their domination of a ranked Army team. And I'm still keeping Boise State as my G5 representative based on overall resume, but it's hard to not say Tulane is the actual best G5 right now.
Two new squads move into automatic bid slots for me, both of whom weren't previously in the field. SMU takes over the ACC. The Mustangs have a better resume than Miami, and they may actually be the better team. I do still have the Hurricanes as an at-large. In the Big 12, Arizona State is the new league leader after a thrilling and hectic win over BYU. Consecutive losses drop the Cougars out of the field, and Colorado's loss to Kansas keeps them behind the Sun Devils as well. I certainly won't lock anything into stone here though because there are still several possible Big 12 title game possibilities.
We'll see what the actual committee does, but I think it's hard to have a different 12 teams than this. Will rivalry week bring more chaos? So much to the point that we start discussing paths for 3-loss teams? We're going to find out.
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