12-team College Football Playoff rankings prediction: the SEC Conundrum
The 2024 college football regular season is winding down, and playoff rankings are becoming all the more important. Well, somewhat. The committee has shown repeatedly they can make drastic changes from one week to the next regardless of result, so maybe these early rankings don't matter all that much.
But nonetheless, we're in the final playoff push, and the picture couldn't be cloudier for who will actually make the inaugural 12-team field. Sorting these teams is difficult, but I'll continue to give it a go. How have my rankings changed since last week?
12-team College Football Playoff rankings prediction after Week 12
I only have one new team in my field, but that addition is still going to be somewhat controversial considering which team I've left out. I've also shuffled seeding around some, and that in and of itself is messy, largely because of the SEC's "circle of suck". Here are the rankings...
Rank | Team | Why They Are Here | Previous Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
1. | Oregon | Big Ten Champion | 1 |
2. | Texas | SEC Champion | 2 |
3. | Miami | ACC Champion | 4 |
4. | BYU | Big 12 Champion | 3 |
5. | Ohio State | At-Large | 5 |
6. | Indiana | At-Large | 6 |
7. | Alabama | At-Large | 11 |
8. | Penn State | At-Large | 8 |
9. | Georgia | At-Large | NR |
10. | Notre Dame | At-Large | 10 |
11. | Tennessee | At-Large | 7 |
12. | Boise State | Highest Ranked G5 Champion | 12 |
Dropped Out - SMU (previously 9)
The Southeastern Conference Conundrum
Let's start at the auto-berths because that's no longer cut and dry. Oregon and Texas, despite iffy performances, are easy to place as the top seeds. I've kept Boise in the G5 slot, though Army or Tulane could make real arguments. In the ACC, it's tough because while Miami seems to be the best team, SMU has a better resume and technically is ahead in the league standings. I've still got the Canes for now though mostly by projection. In the Big 12 however, I'm going the opposite way. Right now, Colorado seems like the best bet to win the league, but BYU's body of work keeps them in the auto-bid.
Inconsistent? Yes. Reflective of the actual Playoff Committee? Also yes.
Ok...the SEC. This is truly impossible to do. Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee all went 1-1 against each other. You basically have to ignore head to head when it comes to sorting these teams and simply go off the best body of work, and that's Georgia. So why is Alabama higher than them in the rankings? Mostly because I had the Dawgs out last week and felt weird moving them all the way up to a host spot.
So if Georgia is in, then that means an Ole Miss team that beat them emphatically and has the same record has to be in, right? Well, there's the controversy. Look, I know any Rebel fan hate-reading this site is going to accuse me of leaving them out over bias. But when you sit down and put the Ole Miss resume up against the other at-larges, the losses to Kentucky and LSU stick out like a sore thumb.
Both the Tide and Vols, in my opinion, have a more well-rounded body of work, and while arguments about strength of schedule or the lack of impressive wins are fair, I'm not ready to kickout the likes of Indiana, Penn State, or Notre Dame. Record does matter to me. So for now, I've got them out.
I also dropped SMU after they moved to 9-1. If record matters, why are they out? I had a hard-time putting their resume ahead of the other at-large contenders (even though they have the best resume in their conference). And again, inconsistency with process is what the playoff rankings are all about.
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