The First College Football Playoff Top 25 – What We Learned
The inaugural top-25 college playoff poll was revealed Tuesday night on ESPN and as the drama unfolded, many speculated, debated and wondered how the first poll would look. Some took an objective approach and others, like myself took a pessimistic approach, but at the end of the day, nobody knew what was coming until the poll was released in real time.
“It was extremely difficult, more difficult than any of us had expected having gone through our mock selections before,” Arkansas athletic director and committee chairman Jeff Long said. “There are 18 one-loss teams in FBS at this point in time, and the difference between many of them is very slim.”
Once the dust settled and the first top-25 was out, many (including myself) were shocked and pleasantly surprised the way the rankings unfolded. The entire top 25 can be seen right here.
Mississippi State was number one, followed by Florida State at number two and that probably surprised no one. It was selection’s three and four that shocked most of those watching as the committee tabbed Auburn and Ole Miss with the third and fourth seeds. Oregon, Alabama, TCU, Michigan State, Kansas State and Notre Dame rounded out the top ten.
In spectacular fashion the SEC got three of the four seeds in the first poll; something many felt would not happen. Obviously this is the first poll and odds of the last poll looking like the first are slim to none, but what did we learn from this inaugural poll? I think at this point we can assume we learned a lot.
The SEC Does Matter:
Call it SEC bias or whatever you like, but playing in the SEC matters and it matters to the committee. For the committee to tab five of the top eleven teams from one conference tells you the weight they put on playing in the countries grandest conference. LSU got smoked by Mississippi State and Alabama, yet defeated Ole Miss this past weekend and checked in at number-19 in the first ever college football playoff poll.
Conference Rankings Matter, Maybe Not Conference Champions:
It’s interesting when you break down the top-25 by conference demographics. The SEC and Pac-12 led the way with six teams apiece, while the ACC and Big-12 had four teams from each conference, respectfully; the Big-10 had three teams and the final two was one American Conference team and one Independent (Notre Dame).
For quite some time people have talked about the strength of conferences like the SEC and Pac-12 and frowned upon leagues like the Big-10 and ACC for a lack of high level football. I think in this poll you see the committee taking that into account, which is a good thing. We may not see four conference winners in the playoff after all.
Strength of Schedule Matters:
This kind of falls in line with conference affiliation, but we see teams like Kansas State and Michigan State, while with one loss, it’s to a quality out of conference opponent. Kansas State lost to Auburn and Michigan State lost to Oregon. East Carolina lost to South Carolina and several more with one or two losses made it in the top-25 due to quality out of conference scheduling.
Where you Lose and Margin Matters:
This was something that stood out to me immediately when I glanced over the initial poll for a few minutes. Ole Miss lost on the road by three to LSU just a few days ago, yet checked in at number-3. Auburn lost on the road to Mississippi State, Michigan State lost on the road at Oregon and Alabama lost on the road at Ole Miss.
None of these games were blowouts and because these teams competed on the road and even though they lost they were rewarded for them. Oregon lost a close game at home against Arizona, but has blown the doors off everyone else they have played and the committee obviously took that into account. Where you lose and how you lose matters and how you win (style points) obviously is taken into account to some degree.
Maybe the Old Guard is Gone:
My initial thought was no way Notre Dame will be left out of the top five. They are a media darling and have been for decades. You know those teams right? Miami, Michigan, Notre Dame Ohio State, Oklahoma and a few more are college football stalwarts and typically are given the benefit of the doubt when it comes to pollsters and the media. But – not in week one of the college football poll.
Notre Dame checked in at number-10 and Ohio State at number-16. While they both only have one loss, their resumes just aren’t as impressive as other teams and the committee obviously recognized that.
Moving Forward:
We have a long way to go before the final poll is revealed and odds of the final poll resembling the first poll are slim to none. Several teams will play each other with high stakes on the line over the next six weeks and teams will fall, while others will rise. But – based on the first poll we can breath a sigh of relief for the moment. The committee appears to have their heads screwed on right and might just make this thing work.