Rewind, Pause, and Fast Forward on 2011
As we all know, expectations were high going into the season. And they were met in the first game when State whooped Memphis, as expected, 59-14. Then State was a seven point favorite, even though they were on the road against the defending national
champions. The game came down to a few inches, but the Dawgs lost…in the process losing offensive lineman James Carmon.
Game 3: LSU. First series: OL Tobias Smith goes down. State plays poorly on offense, but we chalk it up to LSU’s great defense. A lot of people criticized Tyler Russell’s play when he came in for Chris Relf, but as I stated after that game, he was thrown into an almost impossible situation. Looking back, State played LSU better than anyone else has through their first 8 games. Not only were the Dawgs the closest in margin (tied with Oregon at 13 points), but MSU is the only team to hold them to under 35 points (19).
Louisiana Tech was a bad dream that almost became a nightmare. State did not play well, and Chris Relf looked like he had lost his confidence. Still, the Dawgs found a way to win the game. At Georgia was probably the worst game they’ve played all year. The defense played pretty well, but the offense was completely non-existent…and plenty of mistakes were made. The first half against UAB wasn’t much different. Then Tyler Russell stepped in and saved that game from near disaster. Mullen stuck with Russell for the South Carolina game and State played well, probably their most complete game of the year. Even though the offense sputtered at times, considering Russell’s level of experience he performed well.
I was watching ‘Spotlight: Mississippi State’ this past weekend. I had seen it before, it was filmed just before this season. To paraphrase something Mullen said, “We want to go from good to great, we want to take that next level as a program”. We all heard Mullen say that over and over again during the summer. Then he said, “A lot of our players are happy right now because we are good, but that won’t cut it, because we want to be great”. Mullen’s attitude is the right one; if you settle for good, not only will you not attain great, but you will likely lose good. And coming from an undefeated season at Utah, two national titles at Florida, he knows how and what it takes to be great…so 9-4 isn’t where he wants to be. But for Mississippi State players, players who have never even been good (except for a few players who were on an overachieving 7-5 2007 team), 9-4 is a big deal! With all their family and friends congratulating them on the great season they had in 2010, isn’t it only human nature to kick back and enjoy the glow coming off that good season? I’m not saying all the players did this, but I’m sure at least a handful, maybe half did. They heard the coach, but it’s hard to want to go even further when you already feel like you’ve overachieved and accomplished great things (even when others just say it is ‘good’). So maybe that played a little bit of a roll in how the team’s mental and emotional state of mind was coming into the season.
On the field, the biggest thing that has been a detriment to MSU’s success is the injuries
on the offensive line. Before the season, Mullen mentioned that we’d be fine as long as there were not injuries up front. He was right. Saulsberry was injured at Auburn (but came back the next game). Carmon was injured at Auburn and missed the LSU game as well. Tobias Smith was injured vs. LSU and is out for the year. So when you combine those injuries with the loss of a first round NFL draft pick (Derek Sherrod, right) and a solid player like J.C. Brignone, it is tough to make up for. Then compound it with Relf’s inability to release the football – at all or accurately – then you have a recipe for a faltering offense.
All of that said, take a minute to examine where State is right now. Putting the first half of the season in the rear view mirror, how do we look? After the past 1 1/2 games you can definitely say the offense has some life with Tyler Russell, and they seem to be moving in the right direction. Sure, they are not the offense we expected in the preseason, but with the difficulties outlined in the previous paragraph we have to move on. The defense is playing very well and starting to come together like last year’s team. MSU may be 3-4, and yes, 0-4 in the SEC…but the season is not over and not all hope is lost.
Here are some quick stats to consume (rankings within the SEC):
Offense
10th in scoring offense (24 PPG)
5th in total offense (376.3 YPG)
5th in rushing (180.1 YPG)
6th in passing (196.1 YPG)
7th in 3rd down conversions (38.7%)
8th in sacks allowed (16)
6th in red zone efficiency (85.7%)
12th in touchdowns per red zone opportunity (42.8%)
Defense
5th in scoring defense (19.3 PPG)
7th in total defense (340.4 YPG)
7th in rushing defense (152 YPG)
7th in pass defense (188.4 YPG)
6th in opponents 3rd down conversions (36%)
T-4th in sacks (14)
5th in red zone defense (76.2%)
1st in allowing touchdowns in red zone defense (47.6%)
Other
12th in time of possession (27:08)
T-th in turnover margin (+5)
12th in kickoff return average yards (16)
T-4th in punt return average yards (9.1)
9th in average punting yards (36.8)
10th in kickoff coverage net average (43.8)
9th in field goals (69.2%)
3rd in average penalty yardage (39.7%)
Those stats show a team that isn’t as bad as the record indicates. Part of that is due to two very close losses. Part of it is due to losing to four Top 25 teams. The defense has certainly been more consistent than the offense, and is only 0.4 PPG from being 3rd in the SEC in scoring defense. Considering State’s next two opponents (Kentucky and UT-Martin), they should be able to make it there.
Where can we go from here? What is the outlook of Mississippi State football? Has this poor start sent us back to square one? I can probably sum all of those up with this answer: Dan Mullen is our coach, and he is the right coach. Even though State is 3-4, we are not bathing in mediocrity like Croom had us doing. You can see improvement, and even though State has lost games..being in them is important, because we will eventually win them. The outlook is good for MSU, and we are moving forward, not backwards.
Ole Miss is moving backwards, they are collapsing, a train wreck. State can use their misfortune to its advantage by capitalizing on the recruiting trails. Quay Evans, a 5-star defensive tackle from Morton, MS is still interested in State. And there are about 6 other 4-5 star players that are interested in State – and Ole Miss among others. Winning the Egg Bowl this year is priority #1.
The future looks bright, especially on defense. 2012’s D should be scary good. This year’s team has a chance to be the best D since the 1999 team statistically speaking. 8 starters will be back next year. Only Sean Furgeson at DE (Trevor Stigers is just as good right now), LB Brandon Wilson, and S Charles Mitchell will depart. Freshman Dee Arrington was a highly touted recruit at safety who should play a significant role next year. There will be no huge question marks going into next season like there was this year at linebacker because each unit is only losing one player.
With Tyler Russell taking over at QB, he will have plenty of experience heading into next year. All the WRs are back, and Joe Morrow – a 6′-4″ 205 lb legitimate threat at wide out – will come in as a redshirt freshman. The O line will once again be the weak spot, as Addison Lawrence, Quentin Saulsberry, and James Carmon will graduate. Plus, Tobias Smith cannot be counted on as he is so injury proned. But with all the early experience this year for some of the youth on the line, hopefully they will come together next year…and one would hope Damien Robinson will eventually come around. Vick Ballard graduates, but MSU reloads with LaDarius Perkins and Nick Griffin.
Total speculation, but with Larry Porter on the hot seat at Memphis, could there be a possibility of him coaching at State next year if he gets fired? He was named National Recruiter of the year in 2007 and 2009 while at LSU. We’ll see what happens, but State is in good hands with Mullen & Co. Chris Wilson has done well filling the shoes of Manny Diaz, and hopefully he will improve even more. And back to my point about the players who were happy being good; if MSU goes 6-6, with increased expectations moving forward…they will want to ratchet it up a notch, and be great. Keep the faith, you can’t get to the mountain top without climbing first. Ole Miss is falling down, hitting its head on jagged rocks on their way down. State is steadily climbing, and we will get there.