Week 10 of the college football season wasn't the sexiest on paper, but as continues to be the case, we were treated to some surprisingly impactful results with multiple playoff contenders stumbling. So of course, my playoff projections are going to look very different compared to last week. And with the first playoff rankings reveal Tuesday night, now we can compare these projections to the real committee rankings.
2024 College Football Playoff projections after Week 10
While things stayed stagnant at the top, I've made lot of major shakeups to spots 5-11 in my playoff rankings.
Rank | Team | Why They Are Here | Previous Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
1. | Oregon | Big Ten Champion | 1. |
2. | Georgia | SEC Champion | 2. |
3. | Miami | ACC Champion | 3. |
4. | BYU | Big 12 Champion | 4. |
5. | Ohio State | At-Large | 8. |
6. | Indiana | At-Large | 9. |
7. | Tennessee | At-Large | NR |
8. | Texas | At-Large | 7. |
9. | Penn State | At-Large | 5. |
10. | SMU | At-Large | NR |
11. | Notre Dame | At-Large | NR |
12. | Boise State | Highest Ranked G5 Champion | 12. |
Dropped Out - Texas A&M (previously 6th), Clemson (previously 10th), Iowa State (previously 11th)
Ohio State still owns Penn State, tough losses for members of projected field spark changes
We got one of the biggest games of the year with Penn State hosting the Buckeyes. Like every year, many of us convinced ourselves this was the year the Nittany Lions got the win, and like every year, they did not. Ohio State, despite the 7-point margin, dominated the game, proving themselves once again as a contender. They take the top at-large spot in my bracket.
As for Penn State, their resume is looking seriously flawed. Their best win is to a 3-loss, unranked Illinois team. If they win out, they're probably ok, but with another loss, I think their playoff hopes would end. I've dropped them to 9th.
Here's where the chaos happens. Remember last week when I said Texas A&M was legit? Yeah, my bad. I overrated the Aggies by putting them at 6th, and now I've dropped them all the way out following their loss at South Carolina. But that's why we reevaluate each week. Clemson falls out after getting dominated at home by Louisville, and Iowa State's home loss to Texas Tech does the same.
So, we've got three new teams in the field. Tennessee has earned their way back in since their loss to Arkansas, owning a good win over Alabama. SMU sits at 8-1 after destroying a good Pitt team, and their loss is to undefeated BYU. And how about Notre Dame? The NIU loss was abysmal and has not aged well. But they've kept winning and winning easily.
At this point, the win/loss column has to count for something, so I've chosen to favor teams based on records rather than perceived strength. We'll see if the actual selection committee does the same in Tuesday night's reveal.