The most overrated college football team in each power conference in 2024
College football is all the way back. We got a thrilling appetizer for the season with Week 0, and this week, the entire country will be in action. While some games have been played, we still have time to let some takes fly for the 2024 season. So how about I make some fanbases mad and predict which teams are going to disappoint this year? Let's talk overrated teams!
How am I defining "overrated"? Almost entirely off of vibes. I'm not basing this off preseason rankings, conference predictions, or even Vegas win totals. I'm going by how these teams have been discussed throughout the offseason and how my opinion of them compares to the overall perception of them.
So going off my weird, vibes-based methodology, here's the most overrated college football team in each Power Four conference in 2024...
ACC: SMU Mustangs
It'd be really easy to just say Florida State after their Week 0 loss to Georgia Tech in Dublin, but I'll go another direction and say it's SMU. Truthfully, calling the Mustangs overrated after they struggled against Nevada isn't particularly bold, but I've felt this way about this team for a while.
SMU joins the ACC with expectations of contending for the league after winning 11 games and the AAC title last season and returning the majority of contributors off that team. While I do think this a solid team (even after the Nevada game), I'm not convinced they're ready to contend in a power conference.
People are underselling the jump in level of competition going from the AAC to the ACC. The AAC was arguably as weak as it's ever been last season, and while people love to dunk on the low to mid-tier ACC schools, the majority of them would've handled the AAC as well as SMU did. And let's not forget that SMU went 0-3 vs power conference teams last year, including a blowout loss to a bad TCU team and losing to the ACC's own Boston College.
I also don't like that SMU's two best lineman left for bigger schools right as their program is attempting to move up. Line play is the biggest difference between the G5 and P4. And don't forget how the likes of UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati did moving up to the Big 12 last year. The Mustangs are going to have to adjust to life in the ACC.
Big Ten: Michigan Wolverines
Why not go after the defending champs?
I'll be honest, there's not a Big Ten team I feel particularly strong about calling "overrated". But if there's a team that has the potential to do worse than preseason expectations, I think it's the Wolverines. There's just so much new with this team!
JJ McCarthy? Gone. Blake Corum? Gone. Best WRs? Gone. Entire OL? Gone. RB Donovan Edwards and TE Colston Loveland are good, but that's a lot to replace in one year. Are we convinced QB Alex Orgi can do anything other than run the Single Wing? Because I'm not. That's not even mentioning losing HC Jim Harbaugh and stud DC Jesse Minter.
Look their defense will still be amazing, and I'd trust them to still be able to run the ball effectively. That combination will be enough to beat most of the teams they play. But is it enough to handle Texas, Oregon, Ohio State, or even USC? I have my doubts.
Big Twelve: Arizona Wildcats
I hate to do this to Zona after going through the stinging loss of their HC Jedd Fisch to Washington and seeing him recruit the roster to Seattle right as their program looked to be rolling, but that's a pretty big reason why I think the Wildcats are being overrated going into their debut Big 12 season.
So much is being made of Arizona holding on to young stud QB Noah Fifita and elite WR Tetairoa McMillan, and they're absolutely one of the best QB/WR duos in the country. But elsewhere, there's a lot of questions.
Outside of McMillan, the receiving corps is losing some big pieces. The RB room is completely new, and they lost dominant LT Jordan Morgan to the NFL. A talented DL has been almost totally overturned this offseason plus they lose a fantastic CB.
There are still enough pieces for this to be a solid team, and Brent Brennan seems to be a good hire. But I can't help but think of my own Mississippi State program going through the transition from Dan Mullen to Joe Moorhead, and how despite everything looking great on paper, the changes led to a disappointing season. I think that could be in store in Tucson.
SEC: Missouri Tigers
How about I just add fuel to this fire?
Missouri fans are surprisingly rabid online, and they've been going hard at anyone who dare suggests they could see some regression from last year's 11-win season when, in their minds, this team should be considered a lock for the playoff. Well add me to the list of Mizzou haters.
Look, the Tigers should still be a good team. Even with the loss of RB Cody Schrader, their offense should be fantastic, as everyone else is back. Defense is another story, however. The Tiger defense was impressive last season, but they now have to replace their best pass-rusher, their best LB, three starters in the secondary, and outstanding DC Blake Baker.
That side of the ball is going to regress, so unless the offense improves to make up for it, overall regression could occur. The other thing to point out is that last year Missouri went 4-0 in one-score games and had a good bit of turnover luck. They were a few plays away from merely solid results. Even with a light schedule, I think they could see the other side of the coin in 2024.