As more bracket projections become finalized going into Selection Sunday, we're getting a clear picture of which teams Mississippi State basketball is likely to be paired up with in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. And it seems there's a high probability the Bulldogs end up facing one of several challenging teams at the start of March Madness.
UConn Huskies top list of potential first round NCAA Tournament opponents for Mississippi State Bulldogs
Most bracketologist have a consensus on which eight teams will be seeded as either an eight or a nine on Selection Sunday: Marquette, Memphis, UConn, Creighton, Mississippi State, Georgia, New Mexico, and Baylor. There may be a few other teams who could fall into either seed, but that's the group settled on currently.
For Mississippi State specifically, bracketologists are pretty firm on having the Bulldogs right on the 8/9 cutline. That opens the door for State to potentially play anyone from that group outside of Georgia or Memphis (regular season rematches are avoided by the selection committee in the first round). And knowing that, chances are MSU ends up with an opponent they'd rather not have to see in March.
The most obvious is UConn. The two-time defending national champions have taken a bigger step back this season than expected and, at least to this point, haven't rounded into title-contending form. But it's still UConn. It's still Dan Hurley, it's still an incredibly talented roster, and it's still a program that knows how to win in March.
If there's a team you wouldn't want to see in an 8/9 game, it's the Huskies. And perhaps that type of reverence doesn't match the actual production of this particular UConn team, but the program has earned it until we see them fall in the tournament. For what it's worth though, the last coach to beat Hurley's Huskies in the tournament was Chris Jans three seasons ago when he was at New Mexico State. Maybe he knows the secret formula for taking them down.
Even if Mississippi State doesn't draw UConn, the other likely 8 or 9-seeds are by no means pushovers. Creighton has won at least one NCAA Tournament game each of the last four years. Marquette is coming off consecutive seasons with NCAA Tournament victories. Needless to say, drawing a Big East team would not be favorable for MSU.
New Mexico? The Lobos are one of the very best mid-majors this season, owning multiple wins over power conference opponents and rolling through a strong Mountain West conference. Coach Richard Pitino (yes, Rick's son) hasn't yet had much NCAA Tournament success, but this is a team that could change that.
Baylor seems to be the most unlikely matchup, as they'll probably be the last 9-seed. But if the committee views both the Bears and Bulldogs differently than bracketologists and that pairing happens, State would be facing a Baylor program that's gotten past the first round in each of their last six tournament appearances under Scott Drew.
Obviously if you're playing in the 8/9 game, you're likely getting two fairly evenly matched teams. Expecting an easy opening round would be foolish any year. But given the high number of teams with a history of success in March being projected there, this could be a uniquely tough year to advance from the 8/9 game. So no matter the draw, Mississippi State fans can expect a dogfight in the first round this year.