Mississippi State basketball season primer: big year could be in store for Bulldogs

Mississippi State basketball is back! The Bulldogs enter their third-season under head coach Chris Jans coming off consecutive 20-win seasons and NCAA Tournament appearances. Now, the expectation is to take the next step.

Let's breakdown the Bulldogs for the 2024-2025 season and lay out expectations for the year.

The Bulldogs have a strong nucleus to build around

While there was a lot of overturn to the roster in the offseason, State has a great nucleus to build around. Sophomore guard Josh Hubbard (17.1 PPG) is one of the very best shooters in the SEC, leading the conference in 3-point makes. Senior Forward Cam Matthews has a case as the best "Swiss Army Knife" in the nation (9.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.9 APG). Guard Shawn Jones and forward KeShawn Murphy are both talented options off the bench who will see bigger roles this year.

Key Losses

Five of the top-seven scorers from a year ago depart. No loss is bigger than star center Tolu Smith (15 PPG, 8.1 RPG), and his backup Jimmy Bell Jr. is gone too after giving strong minutes last season. Wing DJ Jefferies and guard Dashawn Davis were arguably the two best defenders on the team, and guard Shakeel Moore was a good compliment to Hubbard in the backcourt.

Key Additions

Chris Jans loaded up in the portal with the nation's 6th-ranked class. Guards Kanye Clary, Claudell Harris, and Riley Kugel and wing RJ Melendez have all been effective scorers throughout their careers. Transfer centers Michael Nwoko and Jeremy Foumena give State much-needed depth in the post.

Biggest reason for optimism

This Mississippi State offense should be the best we've seen under Chris Jans. Jans added several perimeter scoring options to play alongside Josh Hubbard, and they've modernized the offense to play with more space and take an outside-in approach. You'll see more points in Starkville this year, which should give them more of a chance against the high-flying attacks of the SEC.

Biggest reason for concern

Chris Jans teams are known for defense and rebounding. And while that will remain an emphasis for the Bulldogs, they're unlikely to be as strong in those areas this year. With inexperience at center and a lack of size in the backcourt, chances are that State is going to, while scoring more points, allow more points and not dominate the boards like we're accustomed to.

Schedule Breakdown

The Bulldogs have a challenging slate for '24-'25, but that's a good thing when it comes to building a tournament resume. The non-conference should provide plenty of tests between the Arizona Tip-off (vs UNLV and then either Northwestern or Butler), home with Pittsburgh, and a trip to Memphis. In SEC play, State will have difficult roads games at Auburn, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Arkansas while Kentucky, Florida, Texas A&M, and Texas come to Starkville (plus the Rebels and Tide). With the SEC as loaded as ever, there are no true breaks in the slate. It will be a grind.

Season Expectations

National expectations are somewhat tame for Mississippi State. They were picked 10th in the SEC and received only a few votes for the preseason Top-25. The perception is that the Bulldogs enter the year as a bubble team for the tournament rather than highly-likely to return to the Big Dance.

But I think this State team can do more than that. There's huge potential offensively with the scoring options added to play aside Hubbard. And while there are some defensive concerns, I trust Chris Jans to get above-average play on that end of the court. For as tough as the schedule is, there's no one the Bulldogs are incapable of competing with. We saw them get breakthrough wins against Tennessee and Auburn last season, and I think they can do even more this year.

I won't tell you State will roll through the season. But I believe they'll do what they need in the non-conference slate and challenge for a winning SEC record. That will have them in position to be a single-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament, and I think this roster in particular is better built to get wins in March.

Mississippi State basketball will safely return to the NCAA Tournament, not having to sweat it out on Selection Sunday, and they'll win their first tournament game since 2008.