Mississippi State basketball has already locked themselves into the NCAA Tournament. After their emphatic win over Texas A&M last week, the Bulldogs had done enough to remove any doubt about their postseason lives. They'd be dancing, regardless of what happened the rest of the way.
That didn't change with their questionable loss over the weekend to Oklahoma. While an untimely performance, State is still in good shape and has the ability to play for seeding the rest of the way. But if MSU wants to truly make a statement and make a case for a high seed, they only have one known opportunity to do so the rest of the way.
And that comes tonight.
Alabama game presents the final chance for the Mississippi State Bulldogs to impress the NCAA Tournament selection committee
Mississippi State's Tuesday night trip to Alabama is the last known game on their schedule in which the Bulldogs could thoroughly impress the NCAA Tournament selection committee. At #6 in the NET with the second-best collection of resume metrics in the country, the Crimson Tide are firmly in the conversation to earn a #1 seed in March Madness.
They're an elite team and legitimate national title contender. To win at Coleman Coliseum would not just be a Quad 1 road win. It'd be amongst the best wins of the season by any team of similar caliber to Mississippi State. And that's why with a win over Alabama, the Bulldogs would have a strong argument to move ahead of the teams around them and get into high seed territory, potentially as a 4-seed.
If you can get up to a 4-seed or better, you become what's known as a "protected seed". This is important because as a protected seed, the selection committee ensures that you won't be at a home-court disadvantage in the first round. Whatever regional you're sent to, your first round opponent (and their fans) will have to travel as much or more to get there.
None of MSU's other three remaining games would have that same impact. LSU isn't good. Texas is solid, but beating them in Starkville wouldn't move the needle. And while Arkansas is playing well and that game is on the road, you wouldn't consider a win there elite. Even winning all three of those games in blowout fashion, while beneficial, is unlikely to vault the Bulldogs as highly as beating the Tide would.
Now I've been qualifying the Bama game as a "known" opportunity, and that's because the SEC Tournament is still to be played. State could theoretically play and beat an elite team in Nashville to boost their resume. They did that last season against Tennessee.
But there's no guaranteed matchup, and how much the selection committee chooses to value conference tournament results can vary. Essentially, if you're banking on making a run during Champ Week to move up multiple seed lines, you're probably going to be out of luck.
If Mississippi State wants to have a case as a protected seed, they need a win tonight in Tuscaloosa. A loss to the Tide won't hurt them, but this is the last chance to make a significant move upwards in the bracket.