Mississippi State basketball's chances against Missouri come down to defending the 3

If State's going to get a win on Saturday, they'll need much better three-point defense than they've shown much of this season.

Jan 11, 2025; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Missouri Tigers guard Caleb Grill (31) celebrates after scoring against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the second half at Mizzou Arena. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images
Jan 11, 2025; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Missouri Tigers guard Caleb Grill (31) celebrates after scoring against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the second half at Mizzou Arena. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Mississippi State basketball is back at Humphrey Coliseum Saturday at 12:00 PM CT, hosting the #20 Missouri Tigers. Mizzou HC Dennis Gates has orchestrated a remarkable turnaround in Columbia after a disastrous '23-'24 season, and his squad has proven to be capable of beating almost anyone, even on the road.

Three-pointers and free throws are where the Tigers do their damage

Missouri has been an offensive-driven team this season, scoring more than 83 points per game behind four double-digit scorers. They're an excellent three-point shooting team. In SEC play, they've made 38.6% of their shots from beyond the arc, and they have several players who are threats to score from distance.

The other thing the Tigers rely on is their ability to get to the free throw line. They attempted more than 28 foul shots per game, and while they're merely average at making those shots, that many extra chances pays off. Defensively, they do a good job of forcing turnovers.

Missouri guard Caleb Grill is the X-Factor to watch

Prolific scorer Tamar Bates is the leader for the Tigers, and forward Mark Mitchell can be a threat. But guard Caleb Grill is the player State fans need to watch for on Saturday. Grill averages nearly 13 a game off the bench and is a sharpshooter, especially from distance where he makes 48% of his attempts. He leads Mizzou with 2.9 made threes per game, and he's had some huge performances in recent games. If there's one player whose final stat line may tell you the outcome, it's him.

Stopping Missouri comes down to defending the three for Mississippi State basketball

The Bulldog offense should be able to have a nice day against Missouri. State is the more physical rebounding team and should find second-chance opportunities. And the Tigers are lackluster in three-point defense, which has to have Josh Hubbard excited considering the performance he's coming off.

It comes down to the Mississippi State defense getting enough stops and not allowing Missouri to get hot from three. That's concerning considering the Tigers shoot the three well while State defends it poorly. But if you're the Bulldogs, you've got to be deliberate in not allowing easy looks from beyond the perimeter. If that means less trapping and more conservative defense, so be it. If Missouri isn't hitting threes, they're not going to be able to keep pace on the road.