The final day of the 2024-2025 SEC men's basketball regular season is this Saturday. The Mississippi State Bulldogs, 20-10 and 8-9 in the SEC, head to Fayetteville, taking on Arkansas for the regular season finale. Next week, we'll have the SEC Tournament, and depending on Saturday's results, Mississippi State could end up in a few different spots.
Mississippi State Bulldogs can land as one of three seeds in the 2025 SEC Men's Basketball Tournament
Depending on Saturday's results across the SEC, Mississippi State will enter the SEC Tournament as either the 9-seed, 10-seed, or 11-seed. Here's what needs to happen for each possibility...
Mississippi State basketball will be the 9-seed in the SEC Tournament if...
The Bulldogs win at Arkansas on Saturday. With a win in Fayetteville, Mississippi State finishes with a 9-9 SEC record. Vanderbilt, who is also currently 8-9 in the SEC, has a head-to-head loss, which would keep the Commodores below the Bulldogs in the case of a two-way tie at 9-9.
If Kentucky, 9-8 in the SEC, were to lose while both MSU and Vanderbilt win, there would be a three-way tie of 9-9 teams. In this scenario, each teams' round-robin record against each other breaks the tie, and MSU still ends up as the 9-seed.
Mississippi State basketball will be the 10-seed in the SEC Tournament if...
The Bulldogs lose at Arkansas while Vanderbilt loses to Georgia. In this scenario, State, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Georgia all finish with 8-10 SEC records. The tiebreaker for this four-way tie would be the teams' round-robin records against each others.
State's combined record against the Hogs, Bulldogs, and 'Dores would be 2-1, which would be the second-best amongst that grouping, putting them as the 10-seed.
Mississippi State basketball will be the 11-seed in the SEC Tournament if...
The Bulldogs lose at Arkansas while Vanderbilt beats Georgia. MSU and Arkansas would both finish 8-10 in the SEC while Vanderbilt would finish 9-9. The Commodores would obviously move ahead, and with Arkansas having a head-to-head win over State, the Bulldogs finish as the 11-seed.
Regardless of what seed Mississippi State ends up with, they're guaranteed to be playing on Wednesday in Nashville. A day that used to be reserved exclusively for the SEC's very worst teams, the new 16-team SEC has resulted in all teams that finish in the league's bottom-half playing on Wednesday.
We should know which teams they could be playing as well. If the Bulldogs get the 9-seed, they'd face South Carolina, who's locked in as the 16-seed. As the 10-seed, State would face guaranteed 15-seed LSU. As the 11-seed, it appears they'd face 14-seed Oklahoma. As far as I could tell, no combination of results for the Sooners would move them any higher.
Either way, you hope the Bulldogs can avoid having to play Oklahoma given how much trouble the Sooners gave them two weeks back. Best case scenario, Mississippi State wins in Fayetteville and gets the 9-seed and more favorable matchup.