Mississippi State basketball's roller coaster of a season continues as the regular season nears its close. The Bulldogs handled LSU last Saturday but followed that up with a vexing home loss to Texas. Since earning back-to-back ranked wins just a few weeks back, the Bulldogs have now lost three of their last four. They sit at 20-10 with an 8-9 SEC record entering their final regular season game.
ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi most recently had Mississippi State as a 7-seed in his projections. Coming off a 1-1 week with a trip to Arkansas looming, where does Lunardi have the Bulldogs?
Mississippi State basketball falls to 8-seed in Joe Lunardi's bracketology ahead of regular season finale
State has trended in the wrong direction in bracketology over the last two weeks, and that's continued in Joe Lunardi's latest projections. Joey Brackets has MSU down to an 8-seed. He's got them in the Midwest Region, matched up with 9-seed Gonzaga and playing in Wichita.
Zaga alone would be a scary first round opponent in the Big Dance, but what makes the fall to an 8-seed even worse is that you've almost certainly got a 1-seed waiting for you if you advance to the second round. In this case, that 1-seed is Houston. Needless to say, State would have an uphill battle trying to advance to the second weekend.
So what caused the Bulldogs to fall a seed line (beyond the obvious "they lost a game")?
While beating LSU was a necessary result for Mississippi State, that's not a win that's going to do anything for your resume. As for Texas, the Longhorns are a quality opponent at #40 in the NET. But taking a loss to them at home as a considerable favorite was not ideal for the Bulldogs' metrics.
And with other teams near the 7/8 line adding impressive wins to their resume within the past week, State was bound to be passed up along the seed list. Now the question is whether or not they can move back up and avoid the dreaded 8/9 draw.
It could be possible with a win at Arkansas. The Razorbacks check in #39 in the NET. With that game on the road, it's an upper-half Quad 1 opportunity for Mississippi State. A win would give State their 8th Q1 victory. No team with at least eight Q1 wins is currently projected lower than a 6-seed.
If State wants to move back up, they need to win in Fayetteville. Plus, they need a win there simply to get some momentum back on their side entering the postseason.