Jeff Lebby was hired at Mississippi State for a pretty simple reason: he runs an exciting offense that puts lots of points on the board. Everywhere Lebby has been, his teams have lit up scoreboards and stat sheets with some of the nation's best offensive production.
But thus far in Starkville, he hasn't delivered an electrifying offense with any regularity. They've mostly done as you'd expect against lesser opponents, but against teams with a pulse, there have been plenty of frustrations. There have been flashes of brilliance and occasional strong stretches within games where you see the potential, but to this point, playing a completely fantastic game on offense against a quality team has not happened.
In fact, in 14 games played against power conference competition under Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State has totaled at least 400 yards of offense just four times. Only three times in those games have they scored at least 30 points. Putting up at least 500 yards and/or 40 points? It hasn't happened against a power conference team.
In two seasons at Oklahoma, Lebby's offense went north of 500 yards seven times in P4 games. They accomplished that 10 times in two seasons at Ole Miss. 40 point games? Six at Oklahoma, seven at Ole Miss.
Neither of those teams were experiencing the same type of total overhaul Lebby has had to orchestrate in Starkville. But regardless, it's a bit baffling that the Bulldogs have failed to put together an all-around outstanding offensive day against a non-G5/FCS opponent while being coached by a play-caller as good as Lebby.
That needs to change on Saturday.
Mississippi State needs to display the offense fans have envisioned against Arkansas
If there were ever a game against a power conference opponent were the Bulldogs need to light up the stat sheet and, more importantly, the scoreboard, it's their trip to Arkansas on Saturday.
The Arkansas defense is bad. Really, really bad.
They rank No. 123 in total defense (435.9 YPG), No. 120 in scoring defense (32.8 PPG), No. 123 in rushing defense (193.9 YPG), No. 100 in passing defense (242 YPG), No. 100 in 3rd down defense (42.3%), and No. 118 in red zone defense (91.9%).
They struggle to get tackles for loss and sacks, and they're terrible about forcing turnovers. There is nothing they do well on the defensive side of the ball. Any semi-capable offense has moved the ball at will on the Hogs and put plenty of points on the board.
With all of that in mind, there is no reason whatsoever that Jeff Lebby's offense should not have a big performance in Fayetteville this weekend. If Lebby's offense is doing what it's reputation says it's supposed to, Mississippi State should find success from start to finish.
And they may need to if they're going to get a win. Though a disaster defensively, the Arkansas offense is legitimately strong. They've scored on everyone, and will likely perform well against the Bulldogs. The makings are there for a shootout, the exact type of game many expected to see from MSU with regularity when Jeff Lebby was hired.
Of course State fans will take a win anyway it can happen. If these teams somehow give us a replica of 2023's disgusting 7-3 final for a Bulldogs' win, that's obviously a better outcome than a shootout loss.
But style points matter too. MSU hired Jeff Lebby to see a football team field a consistently good and fun offense that would give them a chance week in and week out in the SEC. So far, that's not what they've gotten. And if they can't provide that against this Arkansas defense, it's not a great sign.