Mississippi State football welcomes the No. 22 Texas Longhorns to Starkville for homecoming, desperate to snap their 15-game SEC losing streak. How can the Bulldogs pull off the upset?
Mississippi State must prevent Texas from establishing their run game
The Longhorn offense has been a nightmare this season. They're awful up front, lack a high-level pass-catcher, and QB Arch Manning hasn't come close to living up to the hype. However on the few occasions the Longhorns have managed a solid run game, they've at least given themselves chances to score.
RB Quintrevion Wisner is capable of big games, and Manning is a threat on the ground. If those two get going, Texas may genuinely manage to control the game. State's run defense has been shaky this season. It can't afford to continue that on Saturday.
The Bulldogs must turn long drives into points
The easiest way to score points is to hit explosive plays. That's especially true for Mississippi State given their tendency to get in their own way with crushing mistakes on offense. Scoring fast with as few plays as possible limits the chances of those mistakes. Texas knows this, and they also know that with safety Michael Taaffe out, their secondary may be vulnerable downfield.
Expect the Longhorns to play conservatively on defense, dropping back into coverage to prevent quick strike scores downfield. They'll likely even be willing to concede some of the run game, trusting they can make stops in the redzone. It was their approach in this game a year ago, and it worked well for them.
For State, that means they'll have to sustain longer drives and turn those drives into points. Typically you'd say turn them into TDs, but against Texas, field goals may be enough. Either way, the Bulldogs keep the chains moving and turn those conversions into points consistently by avoiding mistakes.
Mississippi State cannot squander any opportunities against the Longhorns
This builds off the last point, but when Texas affords State with a chance at a big play or a score, they simply cannot waste them. Blake Shapen missed multiple open touchdowns downfield last week. State couldn't afford for him to miss those then, and they certainly can't afford that in this game. The Texas defense is too good for MSU to get several chances to score. The Bulldogs can't waste the ones they get.
If MSU gets a turnover from the Longhorns, it must turn into points. If they have a chance to get Arch Manning to the ground for a sack, they have to. State isn't yet good enough to get away with not capitalizing on big plays or missing out on them all together. Whatever game-changing moments present themselves must be taken advantage of.