Mississippi State football kicks off the 2025 season and year two of the Jeff Lebby-era on Saturday in Hattiesburg. After a 2-10 season that saw no conference wins and an embarrassing blowout loss at home to Toledo, fans are begging for improvement.
And there could be reason for excitement. The Bulldogs have a veteran QB, a loaded running back room, one of the best single defenders in the SEC, and reloaded their offensive and defensive lines over the offseason. There's a lot of experience on this team and some intriguing transfers. That could lead to real improvement.
But how improved will they be? And who will be the key players for the season? Let's predict some key stats, the top performers on offense and defense, and the final record for the Bulldogs.
Blake Shapen Stat Predictions
Blake Shapen is back at QB for the Bulldogs after missing the final eight games of 2024 with injury. The veteran signal-caller was a solid passer at Baylor and had gotten off to a good start with MSU playing Jeff Lebby's offense. How good can he be in 2025?
I think Shapen is in for a big year. With more experience in the system, a stronger OL protecting him, and having the compliment of a strong run game, the situation is much more conducive for success assuming a few pass-catchers step up (and I think they will). He's always completed passes at a high clip and has generally avoided interceptions. If you do those things in this system, considering the explosive play potential, you'll likely have a lot of yards. I'll be a bit more conservative on the TD pass numbers though.
Blake Shapen Predicted Stat Line: 64%, 3,060 yards, 23 TDs, 6 INTs
Offensive MVP - RB Davon Booth
While transfer Fluff Bothwell will get plenty of touches and may see heavy usage in the redzone given his physicality, I still believe that Davon Booth leads the way as the offensive player State most looks to feature in 2025. His explosive nature coupled with the ability to hurt defenses both as a rusher and receiver make him an exciting play-maker. Booth builds off a strong close to last season and becomes a star.
Defensive MVP - LB/S Isaac Smith
This is the easiest selection. Isaac Smith was the lone true bright spot on the Bulldog defense with 127 tackles last season, and now with better talent around him along with playing closer to the line of scrimmage, he gets to be on attack mode rather than clean-up duty. I doubt Smith matches his tackling total from last year, but he'll create many more negative plays.
Offensive Breakout Player - TE Seydou Traore
State has a lot of production to replace in its receiving corps, and understandably, much of the attention has been put on transfer wideouts Anthony Evans III and Brenen Thompson to fill the void. I expect both to have strong seasons, but I'll take a shot here that TE Seydou Traore becomes a true go-to target for Blake Shapen in 2025. He saw modest numbers last year, but with what should be a more diverse passing game he'll have a better chance to breakout. He could be the safety-valve in key situations.
Defensive Breakout Player - LB Zakari Tillman
State needs defenders that can create game-changing plays, and Zakari Tillman is a candidate to do just that. In limited opportunities last year, he flashed with a team-leading 3.5 sacks plus an interception, forced fumble, and blocked punt. He's set to take on a starting role this year, and there's plenty of excitement that he can provide those regular negative plays the Bulldog defense needs to improve.
Does Mississippi State have a Top 50 scoring offense in 2025?
Mississippi State didn't get the instant impact offense it expected with the hire of Jeff Lebby in 2024. They hit enough explosive plays to occasionally look respectable, but they couldn't move the ball, and score, with any sort of consistency. They finished No. 85 in scoring offense at 25.8 PPG.
Can they crack the Top 50 in 2025? I say yes. With a better offensive line and run game and more consistent QB play, the Bulldogs will be able to field a legitimately good offense this fall. They'll likely still have some limitations, but scoring 30+ on the regular will happen.
Does Mississippi State have a Top 85 scoring defense in 2025?
Defense was nonexistent for the Bulldogs in 2024. The overall lack of talent, experience, and depth on that side of the ball coupled with a first-time DC in Coleman Hutzler was a recipe for disaster. State surrendered 34.1 PPG, No. 118 nationally.
With several good transfers stepping in and more experience, can they take a leap into being merely below average as a Top 85 unit? I don't think so. Don't get me wrong. I believe this group will be much improved. But without a proven difference-maker up front, concerns at cornerback, and the number of highly-talented offenses they're set to face, State's defense likely still struggles most weeks. But I do buy-in to the idea they can make enough stops to give the offense more of a chance than last season.
Mississippi State Football Record Prediction
I think Mississippi State is going to be quite a bit better in 2025. I also recognize the schedule is incredibly difficult, and that may limit their chances of seeing a huge improvement in the win column. There are simply too many teams on the slate that the Bulldogs are probably still a year away from realistically contending with.
Still, I think they'll be improved enough offensively to be competitive most weeks. With marginally better defense, that should be enough to beat the (few) lesser teams on the schedule and potentially spring a few upsets. I'll be bold and give them a pair of conference wins, though I think it's enough year until we're discussing bowl eligibility.
Final Record: 5-7 (2-6)