Final odds and predictions for Mississippi State football at Florida

Point spread, moneyline, total, and score prediction for the Mississippi State Bulldogs vs the Florida Gators.
Sep 27, 2025; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Davon Booth (6) runs with the ball against the Tennessee Volunteers during the second half at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Wesley Hale-Imagn Images
Sep 27, 2025; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Davon Booth (6) runs with the ball against the Tennessee Volunteers during the second half at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Wesley Hale-Imagn Images | Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

Mississippi State football (4-2, 0-2 SEC) heads to the Swamp to take-on the Florida Gators (2-4, 1-2 SEC). Can the Bulldogs put the final nail in the coffin of Billy Napier's tenure in Gainesville, or will Napier rally the troops one final time to stay safe for a few more weeks? Here's a look at the final odds for the game and our prediction...

Mississippi State vs Florida odds: point spread, moneyline, and total

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of October 18. Odds are subject to change.

Point Spread

  • Mississippi State +9.5 (-105)
  • Florida -9.5 (-115)

Moneyline

  • Mississippi State +280
  • Florida -350

Total

  • 51.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Florida Gators score prediction

Florida is a significant favorite for a reason. The Swamp is a very tough place to play, they've got a good defense, and despite their offensive struggles, there's still a ton of talent on the roster. If they play to their talent level, they should win over the Bulldogs.

And it's entirely possible that the Florida roster goes all out for their coach and plays their best game of the year. Despite Napier's struggles, he's well-liked by his team, and they certainly would either like to save his job or at least send him off with a win.

With that being said, this could be a favorable matchup for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs run the football well, and against the three best rushing attacks they've faced, the Gators have allowed an average of 165 yards per game at over 4.0 yards per attempt. Add in that Florida's last two opponents managed regular big plays through the air, another thing State does well, and the Bulldog offense might be able to score some.

State's defense also held Tennessee to just 20 offensive points in regulation and kept Texas A&M in check for two-and-a-half quarters before the Aggies pulled away. It's a solid unit that should be able to find success against a bad Gators' offense. The Bulldogs get the upset.

Mississippi State wins 28-23

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