THIS IS MARCH. Well, technically it's almost March at the time of writing this. But in all likelihood, by the time you read it, it will, in fact, be March. And with March comes Madness.
Selection Sunday for the 2025 NCAA Tournament is just over two weeks away, and we'll then get three weeks of the most exciting and unpredictable postseason in all of sports.
Mississippi State basketball knows they'll be involved. The Bulldogs have put together a strong enough resume over the last four months that they enter the sport's banner month having already guaranteed themselves a trip the Big Dance. Let's take a look at that resume going into March and whether or not they can improve upon it in these final weeks...
Mississippi State basketball's NCAA Tournament resume
Mississippi State's NCAA Tournament resume is in a good place. We'll start with the baseline - they're 19-9 on the season with a 7-8 mark in SEC games and check in at #30 in the NET. Now truth be told, none of those factors mean all that much when it comes to making March Madness, but it gives you a general idea of where they're at as a team.
19 wins with an approximately .500 record in the nation's top conference reflects a good, but not great, team, and the NET rank backs that up. Now let's get into more of the finer details...
On the positive end, the Bulldogs have performed well against an incredible difficult schedule that ranks as the 5th-hardest nationally. They own seven Quad 1 wins with a winning record against the top two quadrants. Four wins have come against teams that will make the NCAA Tournament, and two more are against teams that have great shots at reaching.
One of the most impressive things about MSU's resume is their 10-5 mark in games played outside of Starkville, including six true road wins. That all together gives the Bulldogs an impressive resume purely in terms of the quality of results. In fact, the strength of their resume ranks inside the Top 20 nationally.
So what are the drawbacks? The biggest knock on State is that their actual performance rating is quite a bit lower than their resume would suggest. The Bulldogs grade just outside the Top 30 in their performance metrics. Essentially, their play, while good, hasn't been to a truly high level, as demonstrated by their lopsided losses at the hands of the best teams they've faced.
On that note, while they have good wins, they lack great wins. State is 0-7 against teams in the Top 14 of the NET, with most of those losses by double-digits. Those factors will put a ceiling on how high the Bulldogs will be seeded. Performance metrics tend to play a big role in how the Selection Committee seeds teams, which is less ideal for MSU.
That's reflected in bracketology. The Bulldogs have the resume of a 5-seed, but most projections have them in the six or seven range. Still safely in the field but not necessarily with the clearest path towards making a run.
How can they improve upon those projections? It's fairly simple - win convincingly. None of State's final three opponents give them "needle-moving" potential at face value. LSU is bad while Texas and Arkansas are both merely solid. Arkansas is another Q1 chance, but overall, the biggest thing State can do in these games to make a positive move is to roll over their competition.
If the Bulldogs could pick up some blowout wins down the stretch, that would improve their predictive metrics and potentially improve their seeding. That starts on the first day of March against LSU. If Mississippi State wants to make a late push, they need to flex their muscles.