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Breakdown and prediction for Mississippi State football's pivotal matchup vs Arkansas

How does Mississippi State matchup with Arkansas, and who comes out on top this weekend?

By Andrew Miller

Oct 7, 2023; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks defensive linemen Landon Jackson (40) reacts after a made field goal during the first half against the Mississippi Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
Oct 7, 2023; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks defensive linemen Landon Jackson (40) reacts after a made field goal during the first half against the Mississippi Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
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Mississippi State football (1-6, 0-4 SEC) hosts the Arkansas Razorbacks (4-3, 2-2 SEC) on Saturday in what is arguably the most important game of the season. State is playing better, and the Hogs are a beatable opponent. But is Arkansas a bad matchup for the Bulldogs? Let's take a look...

Hiring Bobby Petrino has helped the Arkansas offense, but they're still flawed

The controversial decision to bring disgraced former Arkansas HC Bobby Petrino as OC has largely paid off, as he's improved that side of the ball in Fayetteville. Transfer QB Taylen Green has been a dynamic addition. He's a big threat with his legs, and in recent weeks, his passing has improved. This is a run-heavy team at 176 rush YPG, but they will be without leading rusher Ja'Quinden Jackson. They've been good about moving the ball, but they have two big flaws - they commit a lot of turnovers and they're bad in the redzone. There's some self-destructive tendencies for this group, so the Mississippi State defense has to take advantage.

The Razorback defensive line will be tough for Mississippi State to block

The Razorbacks have been solid on the defensive side of the ball. They're allowing less than 21 PPG in SEC play. Their success starts up front. This is a talented DL led by Landon Jackson and Eric Gregory. That duo has terrorized opposing QBs, which is scary for Mississippi State given their issues in pass-protection. However, teams have found some success running on the Hogs, who are allowing 153 rush YPG in SEC games. If State can find some consistency in the run game, they can slow down that pass rush and take some pressure off QB Michael Van Buren.

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Arkansas Razorbacks score prediction

There's no doubt that Mississippi State can get a win on Saturday. Arkansas is solid but beatable with a tendency to shoot themselves in the foot. For an improving Bulldogs team playing at home, this feels like a prime opportunity to pounce. However, I don't like this matchup for State, as I think the Hogs have a significant advantage in the trenches. I don't like State's chances at slowing their running game, and I think their DL will be too much to handle. I have State losing another competitive game.

Mississippi State loses 33-27

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