Overreaction No. 3: A bowl game is still out of reach for Arnett and the Bulldogs
On the opposite side of overreaction No. 1 sits this one.
This might be a bit positive and it’s weird to feel optimistic after that disaster of a game, but it wouldn’t be fair to say that the Bulldogs can’t make it to a bowl game. Mathematically speaking, there’s a really good chance the Mississippi State Bulldogs end up in a bowl this year.
ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Arnett a really good chance of coaching in a bowl game. Which, if you’re measuring how successful Arnett can be based off of his ability to take a 9-win team and make it back to a bowl game, then this is going to be important for you to consider.
Because ESPN’s FPI now has State with a 78.7 percent chance of making it to six wins this regular season.
Six wins isn’t great because the Bulldogs weren’t exactly in a position to be rebuilt. There was a strong foundation that had previously been established by Mike Leach’s coaching staff. But Arnett, formerly Leach’s defensive coordinator, has the Bulldogs in a weirdly good position to make a bowl appearance.
FPI is projecting the Bulldogs to end the season at 6.3-5.7, which is a decent spot to be in. There are some winnable games up ahead for MSU, such as MSU’s home matchup with the Kentucky Wildcats and a home game against Southern Miss. Win two of those three and a bowl game is set for MSU.
Find a way to pull off a road win vs. the Auburn Tigers this week or an unlikely upset over Texas A&M and/or Ole Miss and suddenly what has been a dreadful season up to this point might end on a high note.
But the Bulldogs absolutely have to figure out what’s going on with the offense for this to happen.