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Mississippi State Football: Where does ESPN’s FPI rank the Bulldogs?

By Andrew Miller

Nov 5, 2022; Starkville, Mississippi, USA;Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Jo'quavious Marks (7) runs the ball while defended by Auburn Tigers cornerback Jaylin Simpson (36) during the fourth quarter at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 5, 2022; Starkville, Mississippi, USA;Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Jo'quavious Marks (7) runs the ball while defended by Auburn Tigers cornerback Jaylin Simpson (36) during the fourth quarter at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports /
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ESPN unveiled their preseason FPI ratings for the upcoming college football season. Where does Mississippi State football land in the ratings?

Mississippi State football just wrapped up spring practices, but some national projections are already out for the Bulldog’s 2023 season. ESPN released their preseason FPI (Football Power Index) ratings for all Division I FBS teams on Tuesday. And FPI isn’t particularly high on the Bulldogs.

Mississippi State comes in at #32 in the ratings. While not terribly low, that’s good for just 10th in the SEC, ahead of only Auburn, Missouri, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt. Along with a low ranking within the conference, FPI projects Mississippi State to finish with a record of 6.3-5.7, or essentially, 6-6.

That certainly isn’t the type of season State fans are hoping for. The goal of the FPI model is to evaluate how many points better or worse a team is than average. For 2023, FPI sees MSU as 7.8 points above average. That’s pretty good. But in the SEC, pretty good can still mean finishing with a mediocre record.

So why does FPI predict a disappointing season for Mississippi State? For preseason ratings, FPI takes into account four factors: recent history, returning starters, recruiting rankings, and coaching tenure. Those factors will work against MSU in 2023.

We broke this down in detail a few weeks ago, but there are lots of question marks around MSU football this season. As it pertains to FPI, having a first-time HC in Zach Arnett and several new starters on the defensive side of the ball are contributing to State being seen as lesser than its SEC peers. And as State recruits towards the bottom of the SEC, they get knocked into that category, as well.

So aside from recent history, where last year’s 9-win season gave a bit of a boost to State, 3/4 factors used for FPI’s preseason projections are seen as negatives for the Bulldogs. Thus, FPI sees the 2023 season as a down year in Starkville.

Mississippi State is no stranger to being the underdog, though. That’s a role the Bulldogs have thrived in for the past several years, regularly outperforming preseason expectations. They’ll have to embrace being overlooked yet again.

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