Scenario for MSU to win the SEC West


It’s pretty amazing to see how far we’ve come that MSU fans have been discussing winning the SEC West since the beginning of the season. First it was “don’t want to lose to LSU or we’ll get behind the eight ball in the West”, then “elimination game in the West vs. Auburn” and then last week it was “beat A&M and we’ll be contenders in the West”.

The 2014 season did a lot for Mississippi State and its fan base – and one big thing was it created belief that winning the SEC West was possible and something we could compete for.

Unfortunately after three games the Bulldogs are just 1-2 and in all likelihood out of contention for winning the West. The loss to Texas A&M took the wind out of a lot of fans’ sails, which is saying something considering our history, but there is still a lot to play for. MSU is still alive to win just as many regular season games as they did last year. With arguably the toughest remaining games at home, the Bulldogs are set up for a strong finish if they can keep improving and play well.

State is also still alive in the West despite currently sitting in 6th place. Here’s how they could win it:

1. Win out – finish 10-2 (6-2)

  • beat, Kentucky, Missouri, Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss
  • Since Bama, Arkansas and Ole Miss all have one SEC loss already, beating them gives MSU the tiebreaker
  • MSU already holds the tiebreaker vs. Auburn

2. LSU loses three games – this will be tough but it’s not out of the question.

  • at Bama, at Ole Miss and vs. A&M would be the most likely
  • LSU also plays at South Carolina, vs. Florida and vs. Arkansas

3. A&M loses three games – this may be the hardest because their schedule is lighter

  • vs. Bama, at Ole Miss and at LSU would be the most likely
  • A&M also plays at Vanderbilt, vs. Auburn and South Carolina

The key to any of this happening may be LSU losing to Florida in two weeks. The chances of A&M losing to South Carolina, Auburn or Vanderbilt seem pretty slim….so if they don’t get upset in those games they’d have to lose to LSU (assuming they lost to Bama and Ole Miss) to end up with three loses….and if they lose to LSU it means LSU didn’t lose to A&M, so (assuming the Tigers lost to Bama and Ole Miss) they would need to lose to Florida for a third loss.

Long story short, unless Steve Spurrier can turn things around and upset either LSU or A&M in the next few weeks then MSU fans will have to be pulling hard for the Gators at LSU on October 17th to have any shot at the West. And then pull for Bama and Ole Miss (ouch), and of course win out.

It’s a stretch but it can be done.

Next: What are the most pressing issues for MSU?