The Numbers Game: Winning the 4th Quarter

The Mullen era vs. LSU has been defined by one recurring theme: wilting in the 4th quarter.

The Dawgs nearly had the upset in 2009 but since then it’s been a steady stream of hanging tough with the Tigers for three quarters, then watching them pull away at the end and the final score makes the game look like a blowout.

In each of the last three games the Bulldogs have been within one score as the 4th quarter approached. Then the wheels came off (or LSU asserted their talented depth) and MSU lost by 13, 20 and 33 points respectively.

Aside from winning the turnover battle, playing soundly and all the other cliches to win a football game, MSU must be able to use their depth in order to hang with LSU for four quarters. DEPTH is the key word for Mississippi State this year. Everyone is talking about it – we all know this is deepest team Mullen has had. So will those backups, or 1b players, be able to hold their own to allow for the Bulldogs to go the distance?

Dan Mullen is saying all the right things:

backups will get playing time early
rotate as many guys as possible to stay focused on the game
we plan to keep our guys fresh so we can play 60 minutes

We all know about the substitutions that have taken place over the first three weeks of the season, especially the first two. But how do they bear out in production?

Defense

The starters are averaging 35 plays per game. That is only 48% of the plays run against the defense this year…so that’s good – although they were taken out early in a couple of blowouts. If this percentage can stay around 50-60% without drop-off when the subs are in, that would be the perfect scenario.

36 players have recorded a tackle this year, and 21 have recorded five or more.

This side of the ball is the most critical to have depth when facing a team like LSU, especially when they want to keep pounding the football. MSU’s ability or lack there of to have enough stamina to stop the run and pressure the quarterback in the 4th quarter will be a huge factor in the outcome.

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Offense

This side of the ball will need to keep putting stress on the LSU defense all night. The good news is there is a lot of talent at WR and RB – the question will be how much does Mullen trust those skill position guys in a game like this?

14 different receivers (including TEs) have caught passes this year. The only player to tally more than six is Jameon Lewis who has 10…so it’s been a spread the wealth approach thus far. Aside from the starters: Bear Wilson, RoJo and Tubby Lewis – are the Freds or even Joe Morrow ready to step up and make big plays in big games? That’s a big question, because while they’ve been on the field a lot in the “preseason”, it remains to be seen what their playing time will be in the SEC.

At RB, Josh Robinson is the man. He has proven he deserves the lion’s share of the carries, and he is the type of back who can excel in the 4th quarter of games. So far Robinson has accounted for 60% of the teams rushing yards from a RB. Can Nick Griffin, Brandon Holloway and Ashton Shumpert shoulder enough of the load to keep JRob fresh enough to cause some damage in the 4th? Of course, Dak Prescott will be a major factor running the ball as well.

Along the O-line one thing to look out for is Jamaal Clayborn who has missed the last two games with a death in the family. Hopefully he will be ready to go subbing for Ben Beckwith and/or Justin Malone at Guard. Other than that this unit looks pretty healthy – they’ll have a big challenge on their hands but they just need to play their game and it should turn out okay.

The 4th quarter is huge. It has been the difference in recent games with LSU. It’s just as, if not more, important than getting off to a good start in the game. If State can use it’s talented depth to sub, like LSU does, they will be fresh enough to play toe to toe for 60 minutes and have a chance to knock off a top 10 team – the thing that has eluded Dan Mullen’s tenure.

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