NCAA Lafayette Regional Forecast Series: Game 2 vs. Jackson State


What a day of baseball, my friends. We beat SDSU in a 5-2 game that was recapped by The Croom Diaries. Now Jackson State beats the National Seed University of Louisiana – Lafayette in a 1-0 shutout (the first of the season for ULL). So now the two Mississippi teams in the 2014 NCAA Lafayette Regional face off in a Winner’s Bracket 6:00 PM CDT matchup. Winner moves on to the Regional Final, loser goes on to play the winner between SDSU and UL-L. So we will once again be using the NAM from the College of DuPage website. We are going to follow the same format as yesterday for superstition’s sake. If you just want all of my numbers/forecast, just head down to the bottom of the page. If you’d like to read my reasoning for this forecast, just keep on reading. So let’s get right to it at 500 mb.

500 mb

So that upper-level Low Pressure that has been jogging steadily to the SW throughout the day will continue to do so. With this, you can expect DPVA to stay fairly consistent and bring some upward movement, which will generate storms/rain in the area. But, in our case, we actually go through a small pocket of NVA, or Negative Vorticity Advection, which will try and keep storms from happening. So after seeing this, let’s move to the 700 mb level and see those Upward Vertical Velocities, or UVVs.

700 mb

UVVs are fairly calm throughout the area until around 4:00 PM or so. With this upward motion, you can expect some small storms to pop up and start affecting the field. Luckily for us, this will be between games and UL-L has a turf surface which moves water fairly well. So this shouldn’t affect us too much as far as having a rain-soaked field is concerned.

850 mb

So at this level, we are looking to see if we will have some Warm-air advection which will bring more instability into the region. But looking at it, I just don’t see any temperature advection happening. What I do see, however, is some moisture advection. This will keep dewpoints fairly high and the humidity should be nice and high for our teams. So it should feel just like home for our boys.

BUFKIT Analysis

The NAM shows just under 0.10″ of rain falling at Lafayette from 6:00-7:00 PM tomorrow night. For the 24-hour period prior to 6:00 PM, it shows 0.28″ falling in Lafayette. So if this all works out, we could possibly have a delayed Losers’ Bracket game which may push back our game. This could be a fun thing to watch for.

Numbers you want to know

First pitch (6:00 PM CDT): 80 °F, overcast, winds SE at 5-10 mph, chance of rain 50%.

Last out (9:00 PM CDT): 74 °, overcast, winds SE at 5-10 mph, chance of rain 30%.