Coming into Conference Championship Weekend, we could accurately layout 11 of the 12 spots in the College Football Playoff. We didn't necessarily know the exact teams for those spots given they were contingent on championship game results, but when it came down to the discussions for at-large bids, there was one spot left that could go one of two ways.
If SMU beat Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, it would be very simple. Alabama would get the final at-large bid, as the prior week's rankings made clear. But if Clemson beat SMU, then there'd be a discussion. Will it be Alabama or SMU for the final spot?
Well, Clemson beat SMU in a thriller. So who will it be in the playoff?
Final projected 12-team College Football Playoff bracket ahead of Selection Sunday
As always, these "rankings" are a reflection of projected seeding. For one final time, here's the projected bracket 1-12...
Seed | Team | Why They Are Here | Previous Seed |
|---|---|---|---|
1. | Oregon | Big Ten Champion | 1. |
2. | Georgia | SEC Champion | 7. |
3. | Boise State | Highest Ranked G5 Champion | 4. |
4. | Arizona State | Big 12 Champion | 12. |
5. | Notre Dame | At-Large | 6. |
6. | Ohio State | At-Large | 8. |
7. | Penn State | At-Large | 5. |
8. | Texas | At-Large | 2. |
9. | Tennessee | At-Large | 9. |
10. | Indiana | At-Large | 10. |
11. | SMU | At-Large | 3. |
12. | Clemson | ACC Champion | NR |
Dropped Out - Alabama (previously 11th)
It comes down to SMU or Alabama for the final spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket
For most of this ACC Championship, the answer to our SMU vs Alabama debate seemed clear. Clemson was dominating with a 17-point lead in the second half, and making an argument for the Mustangs as a playoff team was becoming very difficult. But then SMU came storming back and managed to tie the game in the final seconds. They looked the part of a high-level team once again.
Unfortunately for SMU, Clemson then immediately got into field goal range and made a 56-yard kick for a 34-31 win. Clemson gets in, and now we have to argue SMU vs Alabama. I'm probably going to regret predicting this given the Selection Committee's history, but I'm taking SMU.
I understand the quality of Alabama's wins which SMU does not have. I understand strength of schedule. I understand power rankings even though I don't think those should matter when it comes to selecting teams (seeding is another discussion).
But I have a really hard time punishing a team that went 11-1 in the regular season in a power conference and then took a last second, 3-point loss, especially when both their losses were close to good teams. Losing three regular season games, even in the mighty SEC, has to hurt you at some point, even if you have good wins. If you take that many losses, you can't say you automatically deserve a spot more than anyone else.
Will I be shocked if Alabama gets in? Of course not. They have a case, and SMU's resume absolutely has flaws. But I tend to think SMU's loss coming in the manner that it did will be just enough for them to hold onto the last at-large.
Now, as for seeding, Georgia jumps to #2 after beating Texas. I've got the Longhorns down to #8. Frankly, I don't think they deserve to host, but I don't see the Committee dropping further than that. Penn State falls down to #7, just behind the Ohio State team that beat them but ahead of Texas, as I'd say the Nittany Lions' overall body of work is better than the Horns'.
With SMU's loss, Boise moves up to the #3, and after obliterating ranked Iowa State, Arizona State maintains positioning ahead of Clemson and takes the #4 for the final first round bye. I debated whether I'd move Clemson all the way ahead of SMU, and obviously with Clemson winning head to head, it'd make fine sense. However, the loss column still favors the Mustangs, and Clemson came into this game nine spots below SMU. That'd be a big jump in both directions.
If nothing else, the result from Saturday night gave us plenty of intrigue going into the final rankings reveal.