The 2024 college football regular season has come to a close. We entered the final week of the regular season with a pretty clear playoff picture after the madness of the previous week. But we also knew that with some rivalry week madness, any clarity that had been found could easily be lost.
I won't say that rivalry week brought us true madness, but there were some significant outcomes for sure that are going to create notable changes to the newest College Football Playoff rankings.
Projected 12-team College Football Playoff bracket
As is always the case, these rankings are reflecting the projected seeding for the playoff, 1-12. An important change to note, the "Previous Seed" section now reflects the actual playoff rankings from the Selection Committee rather than my own previous projections.
Seed | Team | Why They Are Here | Previous Seed |
|---|---|---|---|
1. | Oregon | Big Ten Champion | 1. |
2. | Texas | SEC Champion | 2. |
3. | SMU | ACC Champion | 10. |
4. | Boise State | Highest Ranked G5 Champ | 4. |
5. | Penn State | At-Large | 6. |
6. | Notre Dame | At-Large | 7. |
7. | Georgia | At-Large | 8. |
8. | Ohio State | At-Large | 5. |
9. | Tennessee | At-Large | 9. |
10. | Indiana | At-Large | 11. |
11. | Alabama | At-Large | Second Team Out |
12. | Arizona State | Big 12 Champion | 12. |
Dropped Out - Miami (previously 3rd)
Ohio State embarrasses itself once again vs Michigan, Miami's hopes are slim, and Alabama is set to pounce
Right away, I've made some adjustments to try and reflect how the Selection Committee has been ranking these teams, such as putting Boise in the 4-seed and Arizona State as the 12. After all, this is supposed to be a prediction, and there's a literal ranking I can base them off of (don't ask me why I wasn't already doing that).
10 of the teams in the projected field handled their business over the weekend, albeit to varying degrees (looking at you, Georgia...). Two did not. Ohio State, I don't even know what to say at this point. As three-touchdown favorites at home against a 6-5 Michigan team without its two best players, the Buckeyes lost. That is now four-straight losses for Ryan Day's program in the one game they simply have to win. They see that winged helmet, and they turn into mush. It's truly remarkable.
But, the Buckeyes are still locks to make the playoffs, even though I have no clue how invested they truly are (or if Day is still the coach). They take a considerable tumble to the 8-seed. As for the other team who failed to handle business, Miami...uh oh.
The U has played with fire all year. It had finally caught up to them against Georgia Tech. It caught them again against Syracuse, and this time, it might have killed their playoff hopes. The Canes don't have a single ranked win currently, and both their losses are to unranked teams (though 'Cuse may move in). It's a bad resume, and with no shot at an ACC title, they're probably done.
And thus opens the door for a 3-loss SEC team to enter the field. Believe me, I don't like it. I'd rather watch Miami purely from the entertainment aspect. But I have little doubt that we're going to see a 3-loss SEC team in the field in the next rankings.
I expect that team to be Alabama. The Tide were the second team out of the field in the last rankings, just behind Clemson who, like Miami, lost. There's going to be a lot of debate if previous #15 South Carolina jumps ahead of Alabama and Ole Miss, both of whom beat the Gamecocks, after their win over Clemson. They have a compelling case, but I think the Committee is going to value head to head. And between Bama and the Rebels, the Tide have the better resume. Alabama is inevitable.