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Mississippi State Baseball Forecast: Fake Maroon vs. True Maroon Edition


So it’s that time of year where we face off against the other Maroon and White team in the SEC. Our brothers over in College Station decide to take a visit this weekend for a unique series that starts on Thursday. If we were playing this series in College Station we would have a threat of severe weather towards the end of the series, but with us playing in Starkville we avoided having a rain-shortened series. So you know the drill, I’ll explain what I’m seeing in the models, give you my idea of what will happen, then give you a nice little weather link to look if you want to learn more! So let’s get right to it with the ECMWF from Weather Underground.

200 mb

Now I know this is 200 mb instead of the usual 250 mb but it’s close enough to work with what we want to know. Now I am using the 0:00 Z run of the ECMWF (commonly referred to as “The Euro”). For Thursday’s first pitch of 6:30 PM CDT, it looks like we might have a problem concerning thunderstorms. ESPNU won’t like this at all considering that’s where it will be broadcast. What is happening is we have a fairly significant area of diffluence right over the Mississippi River Delta which enhances uplift in the area. Friday’s game looks a little better as far as dynamic forcing is concerned in the upper levels, this is what we would like to see if we do happen to get rained out of Thursday’s matchup. Saturday looks even better as we don’t really have any upper level forcing which will keep cloud cover as low as possible.

500 mb

For Thursday’s game, it looks like we will have a fairly significant vorticity maximum being advected into the area. This will enhance the uplift already in place from the upper-level diffluence. So once again, it’s not looking good for Thursday’s game as far as it going delay-free. Friday looks good as far as a lack of DPVA is concerned. With this in mind, Friday is looking great for baseball. Saturday there is no DPVA to speak of so all the ingredients are lining up for a great end of the series, weather-wise.

Surface

Temperatures for Thursday don’t look too bad as far as us having to break out jeans and such for cold weather. We won’t dip below 65° in my opinion during the game. Shorts and short sleeve shirts will be in order during the game. Winds are fairly consistent out of the South throughout the game on Thursday. Rain chances are 50/50 right now as it all depends on the path of a small boundary. Cloud cover will keep temperatures fairly regulated during the game even if we don’t get rained on. Friday looks similar as far as the beginning of the game, but I expect temperatures to drop a lot quicker than on Thursday due to the lack of cloud cover. Also, winds will be almost non-existent during the game so temperatures will be quick to drop. I say we drop to around 63° by the end of the game. Not enough to freak out about, but enough to certainly notice. Saturday looks a lot warmer than the previous two days. Also, with the gametime being at 2:15 PM CDT we will be at the peak hours for high temperatures. We will most likely stay in the 80′s as far as temperatures are concerned.

Numbers you want to know

Thursday

First pitch (6:30 PM CDT): 76 degrees, overcast, winds S at 10-15 mph, chance of rain 60%, chance of lightning 40%, chance of delay: 40%.

Final out (9:30 PM CDT if no delay): 68 degrees, overcast, winds S at 10-15 mph, chance of rain 60%.

Friday

First pitch (6:30 PM CDT): 77 degrees, clear, calm winds.

Last out (9:30 PM CDT): 65 degrees, clear, calm winds.

Saturday

First pitch (2:15 PM CDT): 83 degrees, clear, winds SW at 5-10 mph.

Last out (5:15 PM CDT): 84 degrees, clear, winds SSW at 5-10 mph.

Weather Link of the Day: UCAR Satellite Imagery

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