Grass’s Guesses Week 10

Oct 27, 2012; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Fans tailgate in what

I don’t gamble. But I do like to pick games and see how I do against the spread. I haven’t been keeping track of how well I do, but I will start this week. If you use these as the basis of any actual wager, then you might want to have your head examined.

Georgia (-2.5) vs. Florida (in Jacksonville)

It’s the Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party! I also like to refer to it as the most overrated college football game. Always lots of hype and almost always the same result: Florida wins. Georgia is a good team when healthy and they are not healthy. Florida is… confusing. They don’t really score, but they do usually find out a way to win. I think that happens again.

The Guess: Florida 21, Georgia 17

Auburn (-8) at Arkansas

Arkansas is not good. I have virtually no faith in this version of Pig Sooie to win much of anything. I think Bielema will get this program back to its winning ways, but they only have one real shot at getting an SEC win, and that one shot is against us. I don’t even think they will win that one. Auburn has surprised everyone, but there will be no surprises in this one. War Eagle pulls away in the fourth quarter.

The Guess: Auburn 31, Arkansas 17

Tennessee vs. Missouri (-11.5)

Tennessee had a really nice upset of South Carolina a few weeks ago. Missouri was upset by South Carolina last week. Missouri can’t afford to lose another SEC game and give other teams in the East a hope. I think they come out focused and crush the Vols.

The Guess: Missouri 35, Tennessee 13

Alabama State at Kentucky (NL)

Someone who actually gambles will have to educate me here. If there isn’t a line on the game, can you gamble on it? I am really confused by this. Kentucky will win; they aren’t completely awful, just kind of awful.

The Guess: Kentucky 42, Alabama St. 10

Oct 19, 2013; College Station, TX, USA; Texas A

Oct 19, 2013; College Station, TX, USA; Texas A

UTEP at Texas A&M (-45.5)

There is very little I know about gambling, but one thing I do know is to never bet on a game with such a huge line like this. Texas A&M will roll all over UTEP, it just depends when Sumlin decides to take his foot off the pedal. I think it is before they have a 46 point lead.

Mississippi State at South Carolina (-13)

Sep 21, 2013; Starkville, MS, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Dak Prescott (15) celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the game against the Troy Trojans at Davis Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Spruce Derden-USA TODAY Sports

Spruce Derden-USA TODAY Sports

Here is another reason that I never gamble. I could never put money against my own team. Heck, I can’t even pick against them whenever I am doing an online pick ‘em contest. I always pick Mississippi State regardless how much or how little faith I have in the team at the time. If you can’t make a pick and put money down on a team based off of what you actually see on the field, not what you really want to happen, then you shouldn’t be putting money on the game.

I do believe this is a winnable game. South Carolina has a history under Spurrier of having major letdowns after big wins (see their LSU game after beating Georgia last year). This could be a big letdown game for them. Shaw is ailing and Davis has a bum ankle. I think if Mullen puts all of his eggs in the Dak basket, I think we got a shot. Their pass defense is pretty good, but the run defense is pretty weak. That’s all the more reason to stick with Dak. Clowney has shown a penchant for trying to protect his draft stock more than anything else, and a big game against an overmatched offensive line isn’t going to do much to raise his draft stock. I think he goes through the motions in this one. Let’s all hope I am right.

The Guess: Mississippi State 24 (I’m not sure who is going to hit that field goal but someone will), South Carolina 20

Topics: Picks, SEC

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