Confidence Rating
All summer long I’ve spent time analyzing each SEC team, and especially MSU. I’ve read magazines, websites, message boards and I think I have a pretty good feel of how everyone is feeling about each game this year. So here’s what I’m going to do here: give a “confidence rating” for each game on State’s schedule. I’ll just use a number, 1-10. 1 being we have no chance, 10 meaning if we don’t win we should quit playing football. I’m not a betting man, but I do pay attention to the lines, and I’ll give my predicted point spread.
Sept. 1st – Jackson State: 10; This isn’t 2004. There’s no line for FCS games but if there were MSU would be at least -25.
Sept. 8th – Auburn: 5; If I could figure out the poll feature on this blog I bet 30% of y’all say we win, 30% say we lose, and 40% are just saying a prayer every night that we come away with a W. I think State will be at -2.
Sept. 15th – at Troy: 8; Yes, it’s Troy and they were pretty bad last year (3-9), but it is a road game and they should be near the top of the Sun Belt. I’d say MSU -17.
Sept. 22nd – South Alabama: 9; A new FBS team, and this will be their 3rd game ever vs. a FBS team, first outside N.C. State. MSU -21.
Oct. 6th – at Kentucky: 8; Dan Mullen is 3-0 against the Cats and 2-0 in Lexington. UK should be horrible this year. Mississippi State -16.
Oct. 13th – Tennessee: 6; This is a swing game for sure, but it’s one that most fans expect to win, especially with the loss of Da’Rick Rogers for UT. State goes in -4.
Oct. 20th – Middle Tennessee: 9; The Blue Raiders were 2-10 last year and probably won’t be much better this year. MSU -23.
Oct. 27th – at Alabama: 2; Outside of the 2% of State fans who have never said a negative word about the program in their life, this is a loss. State should be around +12.
Nov. 3rd – Texas A&M: 7; Now that A&M has had their game with LA Tech postponed they will be playing 8 consecutive weeks leading up to this game. It’s also in the middle of a brutal 5 out of 6 games are on the road. Of course, this is a sandwich game between Bama and LSU for State. I’ll say MSU -6.
Nov. 10th – at LSU: 1; There’s a 90% chance this game will be at night. That coupled with the fact that LSU will be REALLY good and MSU has won 1 out of the last 20 in this series, and the last win in Baton Rouge was JWS’ first year, 1991. MSU +13.
Nov. 17th – Arkansas: 4; This may seem a little high, but with the exit of Bobby Petrino and the way State played the Hogs the last time they were in Starkville, I think there is a lot of confidence for this game. Both teams are coming off big games as UPig plays South Carolina. Considering the home team usually gets 3 points in the figurin’ I’d say it’s a push.
Nov. 24th – at Mississippi: 7; Sure, we have been pounding the Bears, but the game is in Oxford and it will be their whole season. Their. whole. season. MSU -9.